This week’s action:
Corn Dec23 up 2 at $4.94
Beans Nov23 up 18 at $12.82
KC Wheat Dec23 down 4 at $6.69
Fats Dec23 up .525 at $186.925
Feeders Dec23 up 1.625 at $251.625
Hogs Dec23 down 3.20 at $69.525
Corn Dec24 up 1 at $5.21
Beans Nov24 down 1 at $12.53
KC Wheat July24 down 4 at $6.88
We began the week with the US being 34 % complete with corn harvest and 43% complete with soybean harvest. Nebraska reported 52% complete with soybean harvest 32% done with corn harvest.
Soybean basis at the processor level has increased 10-20 cents depending on the location as more and more farms wrap up harvest. Yields are variable, but overall dryland yields are bad and irrigated yields are disappointing. With 45 cents of carry from Nov23 to May24, basis will have to work to pry beans out of commercial storage. For perspective, this same spread was INVERTED 23 cents this time last year.
Corn basis is doing its best to avoid a “gut slut” basis dump. With the recent weather delays in corn harvest it has not allowed the “pipeline” to be filled to an overwhelming degree. Basis has reacted differently between ethanol locations as harvest progress has varied county by county. As harvest winds down over the next 2-3 weeks, expect some competition between ethanol plants (who have below normal ownership on the books) and commercial elevators with space to fill and 28 cents carry to July24.
The October WASDE was this week. Highlights include:
National yield was dropped 0.8 bpa to 173.0 bpa (173.4 last year)
Overall production forecast is 15.064 billion bushels (13.715 last year)
Carryout projected to be 2.111 billion bushels (1.361 last year)
National yield was dropped 0.5 bpa to 49.6 bpa (same as last year)
Overall production forecast is 4.104 billion bushels (4.27 last year)
Carryout projected to be 220 million bushels (258 last year)
The below graphic from Karen Braun (@kannbwx on Twitter) shows the state by state yield breakdown for corn and soybeans, and how 2023 compares to the past few years.
Scattered showers fell late week stretching from South Dakota/Nebraska all the way to Michigan. Some pockets of rain have been quite heavy. This will result in a harvest slowdown into early next week, but the forecast is clear in the western corn belt while the eastern corn belt will remain damp short term. The 10-day forecast does leave out any chance of helpful rains for the KS/OK/TX winter wheat crop.
A record 447,000 Americans are working two full-time jobs.
Oil prices surged Friday morning after the Treasury Department sanctioned two shipping companies for violating a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude. This as the U.S. recorded record oil production of 13.2 million barrels last week.
It is reported Americans didn’t pay an estimated $688 billion in taxes due on their 2021 returns- the largest ever shortfall. The largest element of noncompliance ($182 billion) was attributable to undeclared business and farm income reported on Schedule C and Schedule F on individual returns. The IRS also said Microsoft underpaid its taxes by $28.9 billion from 2004 to 2013.
Google’s parent company, Alphabet, spent more on federal lobbying in Q2 of this year, than it has in any quarter in the last five years.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
The 2023 class recorded the lowest average composite ACT score in over 30 years, with an average score of 19.5.
Quote of the Week:
“Dreams are for the dreamers. Goals are for achievers.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger
Enjoy your weekend!