This week’s action:
Corn Dec23 down 13 at $4.82
Beans JAN24 down 2 at $13.18
KC Wheat Dec23 down 25 at $6.43
Fats Dec23 down 2.875 at $181.90
Feeders Nov23 down 6.15 at $236.625
Hogs Dec23 up 2.40 at $70.425
Corn Dec24 down 7 at $5.12
Beans Nov24 up 6 at $12.73
KC Wheat July24 down 17 at $6.70
Market Recap:
Nationally, the US is 59% harvested, which is the same as last year and ahead of the 5-year average by 5 points.
Soybean harvest is 76% complete, which is behind last year by 2 points, but ahead of the 5-year average of 67%.
With two days remaining, the current fall insurance price levels are $4.89 and $12.84. This is 17.1% lower than the corn spring price and 6.7% lower in soybeans.
The soybean market rallied to end the week as rumors circulated China cancelled 8-10 soybean November cargoes from Brazil. Reports are Brazil needs the beans for internal processing. This created optimism we may see some purchases from the US, but it is important to note American soybeans are higher priced than Brazil’s through January.
December corn is trying its best to keep the low of $4.68 from September 19 as the confirmed “harvest low”.
Both corn and soybean basis continues to be firm with harvest wrapping up and limited farmer selling.
Forecast:
There are several reports of dryness throughout Brazil, but the GFS is showing favorable rains over the next two weeks.
Economy:
According to the National Association of Realtors, if interest rates stay at 8% and home prices maintain current prices, the average income needs to increase 63%. Applications for a mortgage are down 22% from one year ago and about 16% of pending home sales fell through in September.
The Biden Administration opened $45 billion in federal funds to developers to convert offices to homes.
The S&P 500 is down 8.8% from since the end of July. It is still up 7.7% year to date.
Ford and the United Auto Workers union reached a tentative deal in their labor dispute. The proposed agreement includes a 25% wage increase over a 4-1/2 year contract. Wages will increase 11% initially. There is optimism the other companies will reach a deal with the union with this deal as framework.
Bond yields have risen at the fastest pace since the early 1980s.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
The average price of a used Tesla is now $28,000 lower (-41%) than peak prices in July 2022.
Quote of the Week:
“Don’t complain about not getting a chance and then be unprepared when you finally do.” – Joe Montana