This week’s action:
Corn Dec23 up 16 at $4.92
Beans Nov23 down 11 at $12.64
KC Wheat Dec23 up 11 at $6.73
Fats October down 1.175 at $183.00
Feeders October down 3.80 at $248.525
Hogs October up 1.875 at $82.075
Corn Dec24 up 14 at $5.20
Beans Nov24 down 5 at $12.54
KC Wheat July24 down 8 at $6.92
Market Recap:
Soybean basis has held firm in most Nebraska markets as harvest along the I-80 corridor is close to finishing while harvest is getting fully underway in northern Nebraska. Yields have been all over the place, in general they seem to be somewhere between fair and disappointing. China returns from their weeklong holiday on Monday. Many are watching to see if they increase the purchase pace of soybeans from the U.S.
Corn basis has softened a bit on the front end as more and more farmers finish beans and dryland corn and are entering irrigated fields. The general approach has been to take dryland corn to town with the thought of storing as much as possible beyond that. Most farmers are anticipating a futures/basis rally before selling addition bushels.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange warned this year’s Argentine corn planted area may end up being 2.6 million acres of the originally expected 18.0 million acres, which could potentially be a 14% reduction.
Looking for some good news?
December corn
- Closed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since July 28 (closed at $5.31)
- Closed above $4.90 for the first time since August 28th
- Next point of resistance is at the 100-day moving average around $5.10
Forecast:
Light rains are forecast across the Central US over the weekend, but things should clear up for solid harvest weather next week for most producers. The first frost of the year is expected in Canada and extreme Northern US but is not expected to be prolonged or overlay impactful to row crops. Weather returns to normal in the 11-15 day forecast.
Economy:
The United Auto Workers strike is starting to have ripple effects on other industries. Trucking volumes are down 12% from since September 26 as fewer auto parts equals less need for truck drivers. Most analysts believe the auto industry could be up to 8% of the annual US trucking industry.
EIA data shows US gasoline demand 4-week average is at its lowest seasonal level in 25 years.
The US has only 17 days of usage remaining in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve compared to the average of around 35 days over the past 30 years.
The delinquency rate of credit card debt at small and medium size banks hit a record high. The 8% delinquency rate is higher than its peak during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Almost 60% of consumers are having difficulty obtaining credit. The U.S. economy added over 300,000 jobs in September as workers are trying to earn more money to pay off debts.
Of the Americans who own their homes free and clear, 78% of them are over the age of 55.
Rep. Kevin McCarthy was removed from his position of Speaker of the House this week. This is the first time in the history of the U.S. Congress a Speaker was vacated. By rule, the House of Representatives cannot conduct any business until a new Speaker is elected. It is unclear who will be the new Speaker, but many expect it could be a messy process. It took McCarthy (who was the only one running for Speaker) four days and 15 votes before finally being selected in January. The Continuing Resolution that kept the federal government funded expires November 17 and as of right now, there are only 16 scheduled days of Legislation on the calendar before then.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
This week, it was reported United Airlines could save up to $80 million dollars annually if every passenger lost 10 pounds. They claim this would save 27.6 million gallons of fuel.
Quote of the Week:
“By prevailing over all obstacles and distractions, one may unfailingly arrive at his chosen goal or destination.” – Christopher Columbus