This week’s action:
Corn Dec23 down 13 at $4.64
Beans Jan24 down 4 at $13.48
KC Wheat Dec23 down 4 at $6.40
Fats Dec23 down 9.70 at $174.175
Feeders Jan24 down 13.45 at $226.275
Hogs Dec23 up .275 at $72.025
Corn Dec24 down 11 at $5.175
Beans Nov24 down 16 at $12.97
KC Wheat July24 down 7 at $6.6975
USDA November 9th Report Recap:
USDA increased its estimates of the 2023 US corn and soybean crops yesterday. The US corn yield was pegged at 174.9bpa, up 1.9bpa from 173.0bpa last month. Widespread yield increases were made by USDA across upper Midwest, with slight decreases in CO, NE, and KS (see below). The result was a 170mil bushel increase to the national production estimate, but USDA also bumped demand 125mil bushel higher (see further below).
The US soybean yield was pegged at 49.9bpa, up .3bpa from 49.6bpa last month. The result was a 25mil bushel increase to the production estimate. While USDA increased its US corn demand projections (in almost every major category) they left the soybean demand projections mostly unchanged (see above). State-level yield revisions this month were limited in major-producing states as IL, IN, IA, MN and MO were all left unchanged, while 1 bu/acre increases were seen in ND, OH and SD, with the largest yield increases being in TN and WI of 4 and 5 bu/acre, respectively. The only yield reduction of note was a 3 bu/acre cut in NE from last month (see below).
While USDA bumped their crop estimate up 25 million bushels from last month, they left the demand side of the U.S. soybean balance sheet unchanged, resulting in their estimate of 2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks rising 25 million bushels to 245 million vs the average trade estimate of 225 million. From RJO Market Insights “This week’s notable soybean sales to China likely influenced USDA to leave their export estimate unchanged for the time being, hard to argue with for now given the uncertainty of the Brazilian crop and as early as it is in the marketing year, but we still have concerns exports could prove lower if a notable South American crop problem is averted. We view the large sales to China recently simply as “catch up sales” given the rather limited purchases they had made previously and still leaves total sales below year ago levels – hardly a game changer and no reason to alter overall export ideas for the 2023/24 marketing year in total. We’re currently estimating exports this year at 1.740 billion bushels vs USDA at 1.755 billion. We remain comfortable with the USDA’s 2.300 billion bushel crush estimate, as we’re at 2.295 billion in our balance sheet, a 3.8% increase from last year’s 2.212 billion, and could certainly prove higher if crush margins and demand from the biofuels sector remains strong, of course available supply dependent amid the final size of the U.S. crop and developments in export demand down the road. We’re currently estimating 2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 254 million bushels vs USDA at 245 million and essentially unchanged from stocks of the last three years.”
One of the world’s largest banks, the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), was hacked by the cyber group LockBit, which has ties to Russia.
The Fed says nearly 10% of credit card users in America are in such persistent debt they are charged more in interest and fees each year than they pay on the principal.
Recurring applications for unemployment benefits rose for a sixth consecutive week, indicating those losing their jobs are starting to have more trouble finding new ones.
Workers with in-person jobs spend about $51 a day that they wouldn’t otherwise if they worked remotely.
The odds of an interest rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting is seen as less than a 10% chance. It is currently 5.5%.
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
American hunters kill 6 million deer each year equating to nearly 400 million pounds of meat.
Quote of the week:
“America without her soldiers would be like God without his angels.” – Claudia Pemberton
Veterans Day occurs on November 11 every year in honor of the “eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month” of 1918 that signaled the end of World War I, known as Armistice Day.
Enjoy your weekend!