This week’s action:  

Corn Dec23 down 4.75 at $4.7725

Beans Jan24 up 33.75 at $13.5175

KC Wheat Dec23 up .5 at $6.435

Fats Dec23 up 1.975 at $183.875

Feeders Nov23 up 3.98 at $240.60

Hogs Dec23 up 1.325 at $71.75

Corn Dec24 up 5.5 at $5.175

Beans Nov24 up 24 at $12.97

KC Wheat July24 down .25 at $6.6975

Market Recap:

Bean futures once again rallied hard to end the week on another instance of Chinese buying rumors, South American weather issues, and a continued tight supply outlook for the ’23 crop year.  Positive signals continue with closes above the 9 Day and 50 day moving averages.  Bean basis bids rolled to the SF24 across the region; the SX23/SF24 spread widened to a near 25 cent carry Monday.  Many markets improved a nickel on the roll.

Corn futures finished strong for the week up 8 Friday but did have the lowest close Thursday for the Dec 23 board at $4.70.  Seasonality and market perception brings up thoughts if these are harvest and crop year lows.  South American weather is noted as being a market driver along with corn following beans.  Similar to beans on basis; corn basis levels improving in areas where harvest is in the last rough 10%.  There are a couple exceptions where yields have proven to be above APH levels and producers ran out of bin space on the farm.

Wheat futures were practically unchanged with very little fresh news.  Exports are right at the 5-year average. Buenos Aries Grain Exchange did reduce the Argentine wheat crop by 5% despite recent rains.

Traders next week will look at the November WASDE coming out Thursday Nov 9.

Harvest progress continues full steam ahead.  As of Oct 29: Corn at 71% harvested, Beans at 85%, and Cotton at 49%.  All are ahead of the 5 year average.  Winter Wheat plantings are at 84% finished vs 86% LY and 85% 5 year average.

Economy:

November jobs report has the US adding 150k jobs in October.  Short of the average estimate at 179k jobs.  This is the lowest report since June and 2^nd lowest since December of 2020.  The September report was also revised down by 39k jobs.

Hourly Earnings were up 4.1% from a year ago; smallest increase since June 2021. With these #’s it’s believed that the Fed will pause the fund rate increases in December.  This fueled the stock market with its best week of the year. The Dow gained 5.1% on the week with the Nasdaq up 6.6%.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

A 2008 Department of Energy study found people use about 0.5% less electricity per day during daylight savings, the equivalent of 1.3 trillion watt-hours over four weeks.

Quote of the week:

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” – Winston Churchill

DON’T FORGET DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TONIGHT!  ROLL THE CLOCKS BACK 1 HR!!

Matt Stuever