This week’s action:
Corn Mar up 9 @ $6.53
Beans Jan down 5 @ $14.79
KC Wheat Mar up 14 @ $8.47
Feeders Jan up 18c @ $184.10
Fats Feb up 22c @ $155.775
Hogs Feb up $1.925 @ $85.925
Crude Feb up $3.35 @ 74.31
South American weather, rising interest rates, inflation concerns, War volatility… how does one focus on the news and not the noise? Is managed money sitting on the sideline until the beginning of 2023? This is an interesting yet stagnant time of year as the markets trade export data and South American weather. USDA is gathering information from our harvest for future reports, so it feels as if we are in a lull of choppy markets.
Soybean Technical Analysis and Opinion
January soybean futures posted a harvest low of $13.6225 on October 6th and since rallied up to $14.9275/bu on December 9th. Below is a January soybean futures seasonal tendency chart which has the last 5-, 15-, and 30-year seasonal tendencies.
Beans could be building for a breakout with an ascending triangle. I’m no technical expert, but I’ve been noticing this pattern for a while and I’m curious if it’s going to break for a run up in the coming weeks. Gets subjective with analytical drawing patterns, but I think it’s interesting and something that should be monitored. Below are January soybean futures and some examples of the pattern. There is risk of a breakout either way as the pattern narrows, but the bias is to the high side in an ascending pattern.
Below is an example of one that failed.
Rains forecasted for South and West Argentina for next week. Brazil has been getting timely rains, Argentina has been the direct market mover related to drier South American weather.
- (IRS) Americans who made money online this year could be in for a potentially brutal shock when they file their taxes in 2023. That’s because, beginning next year, taxpayers must report to the IRS transactions of at least $600 that are received through payment apps like Venmo, PayPal and Cash
- (Bloomberg) China’s Covid wave is rippling through the nation’s financial industry, with currency volumes falling as traders call in sick and banks activating backup plans to keep operations running smoothly. Half of the currency traders at one Chinese bank in Beijing were off sick as of Monday.
- (Bureau of Labor Statics) U.S. labor productivity plunged first quarter in the largest decline since 1947, then dropped by the highest annual amount on record in the second. The third quarter data indicates year-over-year output saw three consecutive declines for the first time since 1982. The pandemic caused many older, seasoned workers to retire early, and the spots left behind by those “boomers” are being filled by an insufficient number of less experienced workers from younger generations.
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
Brock Purdy odds to be rookie of the year at +2000. A rookie has never won the Super Bowl. Drafted 262nd and final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft and appears we’re watching a Cinderella man. $50 wins $1,000.