This week’s action:
Corn March down 3 at $6.78
Beans March down 16 at $15.27
KC Wheat March down 3 at $9.07
Feeders March flat at $186.53
Fats April up .675 at $164.70
Hogs April up 2.075 at $85.35
Corn Dec23 flat at $5.96
Beans Nov23 up 6 at $13.85
KC Wheat July23 up 1 at $ 8.84
Spring Insurance Price so far:
Corn Dec23: $5.95
Beans Nov23: $13.74
Current Ratio: 2.31:1
Markets will be closed Monday for President’s Day. The Ag Outlook Forum is Thursday/Friday next week.
Agroconsult, a Brazilian agency, has revised their soybean crop estimate lower to 153 MMT. If realized, it would still be a record crop by over 10 MMT and about 25 MMT larger than last year. That is an increase of approximately 1 billion bushels year over year. Argentine corn and soybean expected production continues to be lowered but appears to be more than offset by Brazilian increases.
Russia “gifted” a wheat shipment to Cuba this week sparking concerns the two countries are again becoming friendly with each other.
Domestically, both corn and soybean basis has softened the last 10-14 days with farmers opening bins and commercial elevators seeing limited value in deferred values. April/May coverage appears limited.
The US Dollar has rallied to recent highs, which has not been supportive to the commodity index.
Chart of the Week:
The first person to respond naming what this chart is will win a Tredas t-shirt!
A front moved through northern Argentina producing good rains but only sprinkled in the main growing areas. It did allow for cooler temps, though.
There is no denying we will need a wet spring and summer to recharge sub-soil moisture levels. Below is a comparison between this week in 2013 to today. This is not the same environment following 2012. (Yet)
The main news this week was the publishing of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI showed a 6.4% increase from one year ago, which is actually 0.1% lower than last month, but still higher than expected. The PPI rose 0.7% from last month and is 6% higher year over year. This data points to the FED continuing raising rates through the year.
New car prices made a new all-time high in January. The average cost of a new vehicle is now $47,743.
The current average 30-year mortgage is at the 2023 high of 6.8%.
A $300,000 house (with 20% down) is a $240,000 mortgage. At 6.8% it is a $1,564 monthly payment before taxes and insurance. In 2021 at 3% that was a $1,011 payment.
Quote of the Week:
“A young man knows the rules, but an old man knows the exceptions.” -Charlie Munger
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
Next month marks 3 years since borrowers had to make payments on their federal student loan payments.
Have a great weekend!
8300 Pioneers Blvd | Lincoln, NE 68506 | (402) 858 7237 (office) | (308) 380 2345 (cell)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Tredas, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Tredas LLC Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.
DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Tredas LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.