This week’s action:
Corn March down 3 at $6.78
Beans March down 16 at $15.27
KC Wheat March down 3 at $9.07
Feeders March flat at $186.53
Fats April up .675 at $164.70
Hogs April up 2.075 at $85.35
Corn Dec23 flat at $5.96
Beans Nov23 up 6 at $13.85
KC Wheat July23 up 1 at $ 8.84
Spring Insurance Price so far:
Corn Dec23: $5.95
Beans Nov23: $13.74
Current Ratio: 2.31:1
Recap:
Markets will be closed Monday for President’s Day. The Ag Outlook Forum is Thursday/Friday next week.
Agroconsult, a Brazilian agency, has revised their soybean crop estimate lower to 153 MMT. If realized, it would still be a record crop by over 10 MMT and about 25 MMT larger than last year. That is an increase of approximately 1 billion bushels year over year. Argentine corn and soybean expected production continues to be lowered but appears to be more than offset by Brazilian increases.
Russia “gifted” a wheat shipment to Cuba this week sparking concerns the two countries are again becoming friendly with each other.
Domestically, both corn and soybean basis has softened the last 10-14 days with farmers opening bins and commercial elevators seeing limited value in deferred values. April/May coverage appears limited.
The US Dollar has rallied to recent highs, which has not been supportive to the commodity index.
Chart of the Week:
The first person to respond naming what this chart is will win a Tredas t-shirt!
Forecast:
A front moved through northern Argentina producing good rains but only sprinkled in the main growing areas. It did allow for cooler temps, though.
There is no denying we will need a wet spring and summer to recharge sub-soil moisture levels. Below is a comparison between this week in 2013 to today. This is not the same environment following 2012. (Yet)
Outside Markets:
The main news this week was the publishing of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI showed a 6.4% increase from one year ago, which is actually 0.1% lower than last month, but still higher than expected. The PPI rose 0.7% from last month and is 6% higher year over year. This data points to the FED continuing raising rates through the year.
New car prices made a new all-time high in January. The average cost of a new vehicle is now $47,743.
The current average 30-year mortgage is at the 2023 high of 6.8%.
A $300,000 house (with 20% down) is a $240,000 mortgage. At 6.8% it is a $1,564 monthly payment before taxes and insurance. In 2021 at 3% that was a $1,011 payment.
Quote of the Week:
“A young man knows the rules, but an old man knows the exceptions.” -Charlie Munger
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
Next month marks 3 years since borrowers had to make payments on their federal student loan payments.
Have a great weekend!
Jamison Jensen
8300 Pioneers Blvd | Lincoln, NE 68506 | (402) 858 7237 (office) | (308) 380 2345 (cell)
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