This week’s action:  

Corn Dec down 6 @ $6.8350

Beans Nov up 10 @ $13.9325

KC Wheat Dec down 6 @ $9.4675

Feeders Nov up 3.85 @ $178.175

Fats Dec up 4.65 @ $152.40

Hogs Dec up 6.90 @ $89.15

Crude Dec up .30 @ $84.95

Recap:

December corn continued its month-long streak of trading within the 6.80-7.00 range this week. Basis remains firm throughout the western corn belt as harvest drags on. Cumulative corn export sales are only about 25% of the USDA forecast. Normally we are closer to 35% of USDA projections this time of year.

Soybean export remains weak in the eastern corn belt as low water levels in Mississippi River persist. The strong dollar combined with some analysts projecting a record large Brazilian soybean crop has tempered bullish enthusiasm nearby.

Below is a continuous monthly corn futures chart. In April this year we hit resistance around 2012 peak levels around $8.50. We are also at the same peak level of “bullish sentiment index”. It is interesting to compare the chart similarities from June 2011-August 2012 and May 2021-present. There are many reasons to be optimistic about corn prices, but I imagine many had similar thoughts in 2012.

Forecast:

Rain is forecasted for part of Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas. If realized, it could go a long way towards establishing wheat before winter.

Outside Markets:

Existing home sales in September were reported at 4.71 million homes. Although slightly above expectations, it is the lowest figure since May 2020. The home sales rate compared to late summer 2021 has fallen 20% or more each of the past three months. This has not happened since the Spring of 2008. As interest rates likely keep rising, either home values need to decline or fewer houses will be sold. Say a prayer for your realtor friends.

Walmart agreed to a $215 million dollar fine to the state of Florida over claims its pharmacies helped fuel the opioid epidemic in that state. Some reports claim Florida has secured over $3 billion to deal with the opioid crisis.

Deutsche Bank announced large layoffs in their origination and advisory segments of its business amid a slowdown in new financing.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

In August 2020, Exxon Mobil was removed from the S&P 500 and replaced with Salesforce. Since then, Exxon stock is up 160% and Salesforce is down 60%.