This week’s action:
Corn July down 14 at $6.21
Beans July down 11 at $14.64
Feeders May flat at $205.450
Fats June up 1.175 at $163.225
Hogs May down 2.05 at $82.450
Corn Dec23 down 10 at $5.56
Beans Nov23 down 9 at $13.10
KC Wheat July23 down 13 at $8.47
Grain markets slid back this week following last Friday’s bullish USDA stocks and prospective planting report. The weather forecast for the next 2 weeks looks good for the start of planting and warming weather should help start to melt snow in the north. The quick planting pace could hold prices down in the short term and then focus will turn to building dryness across the plains which is still trying to recover from last year’s drought. The April USDA supply/demand report next Tuesday at 11 am which will incorporate last week’s numbers showing tight old crop stocks which leans bullish and could lend support to the market, but most of that news may have been processed for now. Traders know we have several months of old crop yet to get through, but the importance of that depends largely on how big our next crop will be and that will be the focus moving forward. There were fewer corn export sales announced this week as China’s buying slowed with soybean sales remaining minimal with a huge Brazilian crop trying to find a home.
Old crop basis has been choppy with all bean processors rolling bids to the July and several locations rolling corn bids to July as well. The basis adjustment for the discount to July futures has overall resulted in a weaker cash price in most areas but could improve seasonally through June so we’ll want to take advantage of any strength we see. The seasonal calendar shows we should be around 40% sold on new crop corn and is just starting on new crop beans as we begin April. We have time through the end of June on the corn seasonal but will want to work to get caught up when we get the chance. There’s plenty of factors to watch right now with the war in Ukraine, political tensions with China and Russia, and a shaky economy with high inflation and interest, and now weather for our growing season which can have a positive or negative impact on the commodity markets on any given day.
Overall, the weather forecast appears promising for advanced field work and planting in the next couple weeks.
Stocks finished the first quarter on a high note, although recession fears and disappointing data kept major indexes at bay. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, showed the core PCE Index rose 4.6% year-over-year in February. This slowed from the month prior and was lower than analysts expected. Jobs data released earlier this week has suggested the persistently strong labor market is starting to weaken. The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that U.S. job openings dropped below 10 million in February, the first time this has happened in almost two years. Additionally, U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose to 228,000, another sign that the labor market is starting to crack. Crude prices shot up this week after a production cut was announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Auto loan and credit card interest rates just hit a new record high.
Average interest rates:
Credit Card: 24.5%
Used Cars: 14.0%
New Cars: 9.0%
We also have record levels of debt:
Total Household Debt: $16.5 trillion
Auto Loans: $1.6 trillion
Credit Card Debt: $986 billion
Student Loans: $1.6 trillion
Something that probably means nothing:
The Masters is famous for only selling official merchandise in person at their gift shop. They’ll do about $70 million in merchandise sales this week.
That’s $10 million a day, $1 million an hour, $16,000 a minute, and $277 every second.
A tradition unlike any other.
Enjoy your Easter!