This week’s action:
Corn July down 14 at $5.83
Beans July down 47 at $13.89
Feeders August up 7.22 at $228.98
Fats June up 2.43 at $164.40
Hogs June up .58 at $84.125 and a new contract low
Corn Dec23 down 28 at $5.07
Beans Nov23 down 57 at $12.22
KC Wheat July up 45 at $8.79 (up $1.17 last two weeks)
Market Recap:
The big news to end the week was the May WASDE report this morning. This report gave us the first official glance at the 2023/24 balance sheets.
The attention-grabbing commodity was winter wheat, specifically HRW. USDA pegged 2023 HRW production at 514 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 591 million bushels and last year’s production of 531 million bushels. Kanas is projected to produce 52 million fewer bushels than last year, which would be about a 20% reduction from 2022. Oklahoma is thought to be down about 28% (19 million bushels) from a year ago. All U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected to be 556 million bushels, which would be a 16-year low. This is 7% lower than last year and a whopping 142 million bushels (20%) below carryout levels from just two years ago.
Old crop corn stocks were held mostly consistent with previous reports. Estimated 23/24 corn stocks are 2.220 billion bushels compared to the current crop year of only 1.417 billion bushels. This relies on the U.S. planting 92.0 million acres (88.6 mln last year) and growing a yield of 181.5 bpa (173.3 bpa last year). The record U.S. yield is 177.0 bpa from 2021.
Soybean carryout for the 23/24 year is projected to be 335 million bushels vs this year’s carryout of 215 million bushels. This is using a 52.0 bpa yield (49.5 bpa last year). The record soybean yield is 51.9 bpa.
As of last Sunday, corn was 49% planted and soybeans were 35% planted which were both above their 5-year averages. North Dakota has been the laggard reporting just 1% of its corn and 0% of its soybean acres by this past Sunday evening.
Conflicting reports surrounding the Black Sea export corridor persist. Russia has reported little progress made to extend the current deal past the May 18 deadline while Turkish officials have expressed optimism.
Forecast:
Widespread warm temperatures are expected in the coming days which will help with germination and emergence across much of the corn belt. Scattered showers are expected in the southern and western plains over the next few days, but Nebraska and Kansas will only see a few smaller showers.
The Canadian prairie is gaining more focus as heat and dryness are expected to persist due to a high-pressure ridge settling in.
Ocean temperatures are record warm which could create pockets of searing heat later this summer.
Economy:
The debt ceiling standoff continues. Expect a deal to get done as “no deal is no good for anyone”.
The National Gas Average is $3.54/gallon compared to $4.42 one year ago (-20%). The average price of diesel is $4.03/gallon compared to $5.56 last year (-28%).
The National Truckload Index (NTI) is $1.48/mile, which is approaching the 2019 low of $1.46/mile. The February 2021 peak was around $3.20/mile. U.S. import prices fell 4.8% over the last year, which is the biggest year-over-year decline since May 2020.
The U.S. unemployment rate is 3.4%, which is the lowest since 1969.
The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 57.70. This is a level consistent with previous Recessions.
Something that probably means nothing:
Apple has bought back $586 billion in stock over the past 10 years. This is greater than the current market cap of 493 companies in the S&P 500.
Enjoy your weekend!