This week’s action:
Corn July up 49 at $6.05
Beans July up 30 at $13.37
Feeders August down 1.20 at $233.90
Fats June up 1.50 at $167.275
Hogs June down 6.95 at $76.25
Corn Dec23 up 35 at $5.35
Beans Nov23 up 15 at $11.89
KC Wheat July down 5 at $8.20
In observance of Memorial Day, markets will be closed Sunday evening/Monday and reopen Monday evening.
Market Recap:
Below is a graphic detailing how rare it is for old crop corn to gain value past mid-June. The only year this paid off was the summer of 2012 (coming off 2011 harvest). It is important to have a gameplan for old crop bushels still in the bin. We are rapidly approaching a 75-cent inverse cliff from July to September futures.
After a rough stretch, row crops ended the week on a heater as early June weather remains threatening for a large portion of the corn belt and optimism grows over a US debt ceiling agreement in Washington, D.C.
NASS reported 81% corn planted (75% avg) and 66% soybean planted (52% avg). The first crop ratings will be released on Tuesday. Spring seeding pace is ahead of normal except for North Dakota, where analysts are predicting as many as 1 million Prevent Plant corn acres.
Managed money came into this week short about 90,000 corn contracts, which is actually 20,000 fewer contracts short from the prior week.
There isn’t a great way to determine May weather’s impact on yield, but for fun- if corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are 5% below trend alone could pull the national average down 4 bushel per acre.
National pasture conditions have been improving. Nationally, Poor/Very Poor conditions are down 4% from the previous week to 29%. This compares to 37% three weeks ago and 50% last year. Unfortunately, Nebraska is still at 55% Poor/Very Poor and Kansas is at 50%. Almost 40% of the US cow herd is currently in drought conditions. This is down from 76% last fall.
Forecast:
Limited rainfall is expected next week. Mid-May to early June has been/will be record dry in some areas of the corn belt. Some longer-term soil moisture models argue subsoil moisture in key Midwest states may remain depleted into July.
Economy:
The U.S. dollar is the highest since mid-March as US Treasury yields are attracting foreign capital.
Germany is officially in a recession following a -0.3% GDP contraction in Q4 2022, and a -0.5% contraction in Q1 2023.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest stocks since 1983. Over the past seven weeks, the US has withdrawn an average of 1.9 million barrels per week. The Biden administration recently announced plans to explore buying up to 3 million barrels to replenish stocks. This would only be equal to about 1.5 weeks of our recent liquidations. Saudi Arabia/OPEC are rumored to announce another production cut, soon.
Mortgage originations dropped sharply during Q1 2023. At only $324 billion, it was the lowest level since 2014. The median price of a home is -15% from last October’s peak.
Something that probably means nothing:
Last weekend, Taylor Swift held a rainy concert near Boston. For $250, you can buy a small jar of rain from collected during the concert.
Enjoy your weekend!