This week’s action:
Corn Sep down 13 at $5.81
Beans Sep down 41 at $13.14
Fats August down .825 at $170.925
Feeders August down .20 at $234.30
Hogs July down .775 at $92.125
Corn Dec23 down 13 at $5.84
Beans Nov23 down 36 at $13.04
KC Wheat Sep23 up 25 at $8.60
Corn Dec24 down 8 at $5.33
Beans Nov24 down 1 at $12.37
KC Wheat July24 up 16 at $8.21
Dec corn Feb 1- today: $5.56
Nov beans April 1- today: $12.54
The market acted like a coked-up ferret during this 4-day trading week. Tuesday trade was incredibly calm as the trade awaited delayed crop condition numbers. They were released Tuesday afternoon and the corn and soybean markets reacted quickly to the upside through Wednesday, and retreated Thursday/Friday to end the week in the red…
Here is a visual recap of the last six trading days:
Weather will be the main factor determining market action in the near term, but below is Dec23 corn futures overlayed with historical seasonal performance. Be mindful it is historically difficult to have a sustained rally after July 4. Even last year, with all the buzz around Ukraine/Russia we had a dramatic pull back about this time of year. If you are feeling undersold, Dec23 futures are currently about 30 cents above the seasonal average and Nov23 beans are about 50 cents higher. We are $1 off Dec23 corn lows from May and $1.70 higher than our recent Nov23 bean lows. We need more rain than is currently forecasted in the models over the next 10 days, but short-term forecasts will drive markets daily.
Corn was rated 55% good/excellent which is down 6% from last week and down 15% from one year ago. Soybeans were rated 54% good/excellent which is a 5% drop from last week and 14% lower than last year.
Rains are forecasted for the northern plains and extreme Eastern corn belt over the next week. Iowa and Illinois remain mostly dry.
The FED paused interest rate increases in June, but some analysts expect another 0.25% at the end of July and is unlikely to cut rates in 2023 as employment reports remain strong.
The U.S. trade deficit reached a record of $948.1 billion in 2022.
Math and reading scores among America’s 13-year-olds fell to their lowest levels in decades.
Deutsche Bank notes a rise in credit card delinquencies with an increase of 1% from late last year to 2.4% in Q1 2024. This is still well below the 6% rate in 2008.
Student loan payments will begin in October after a three-year pause. President Biden’s initiative to forgive up to $20,000 dollars for people making less than $125,000/year is before the U.S. Supreme Court, with a decision expected soon. The case, Biden vs. Nebraska, will focus on two questions: 1) Did Biden overstep his authority? 2) If so, do Republican-led states have standing to sue?
Something that probably means nothing:
Over the past four years, California has spent $17 billion on homeless programs. California has 12% of the U.S. population but is home to 50% of the “unsheltered” population. California has spent $37,000/year ($101/day) for each homeless person since 2019.
Quote of the Week:
“He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.” – Ray Dalio