This week’s action:  

Corn Sep up 18 at $5.07

Beans Sep up 62 at $14.02

Fats August up 3.375 at $180.325

Feeders August up 1.275 at $246.45

Hogs July up 3.30 at $102.15


Corn Dec23 up 18 at $5.14

Beans Nov23 up 54 at $13.73

KC Wheat Sep23 up 6 at $8.27


Corn Dec24 up 19 at $5.18

Beans Nov24 up 42 at $12.71

KC Wheat July24 up 10 at $7.87


Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1- today: $5.51 (insurance price $5.91)

Nov beans April 1- today:  $12.69 (insurance price $13.76)


Market Recap:

We began the week with improved crop condition ratings. Corn ratings improved 4% to 55% good/excellent. Nebraska gained 13% good/excellent and South Dakota and Kansas were both +7%. Iowa was unchanged and Illinois was +3%. On the flip side, soybeans only improved 1% good/excellent nationally with Nebraska up 12%. These corn and soybean mid-July ratings are still the lowest in 11 years, but the market is comparing this crop more like 2019 than 2012.

WASDE Highlights:

  • Corn yield was lowered 4 bushels to 177.5 bpa
  • Overall production and ending stocks similar to previous estimates with increases acres from June 30 report
  • Soybean yield remained the same at 52 bpa
  • Soybean production was lowered due to a decrease in acres, but carryout remained similar with a 125 million reduction in exports

A sign of things to come??

Brazil’s corn exports are projected to surpass US corn exports in the 2022/2023 crop year. Brazil is estimated to account for 31% of the world’s export market, compared to just a 25% share for the US. Previously, Brazil only topped American once, in the 2012/2013 crop year. Just 20 years ago, the US accounted for 90% of the world’s exported corn. Brazil is already the world’s largest soybean exporter.

Does the market seem more volatile than normal? CBOT corn open interest (volume traded) its lowest point in July over the last seven years.



The good news: no extreme heat is forecast as we approach pollination.

The bad news: limited rainfall is expected for the western corn belt over the next 7-10 days.



The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down 275 million bushels (44% decline) over the last two years. It is now at its lowest level since August 1983.

The S&P 500 is now 3% higher than it was when the Fed started hiking rates in 2022.

Total federal spending in June was $646 billion. Of this, interest on national debt was $122 billion, or about 18% of total expenditures.

The Fed’s monthly update showing US consumer credit rose by $286 billion in May, adding to the record total of $4.86 trillion. Credit cards issued by commercial banks carried a 20.68% rate in May, an all-time record.

June CPI came in at 3% for June, which is the lowest inflation reading since March 2021. Much of this was attributed to a decline YoY in energies (-16.7% from last year) and specifically gasoline (-26.5%). Core CPI without measuring food and energy is still 4.8%.

Through the first 42 months, the 2020s has experienced 17.49% total inflation. The entire 2010s decade saw 18.99%.


Something that probably means nothing:

The MLB all-star break was this week signaling the middle of the season. Fourteen players have struck out at least 100 times so far this year.

Tony Gwynn struck out just 188 times during the entire 1990s decade.


Quote of the Week:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” – Charles Darwin