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2023 Tredas Golf Outings are approaching fast! Please RSVP by a week prior. You can bring a team. We hope to see you there!

 

August 10th: 10am @ Indian Trails in Beemer, NE

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August 29th: 10am @ Awarii Dunes in Axtell, NE

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This week’s action:

Corn Sep down 7 at $5.21

Beans Sep up 6 at $14.33

Fats August down 1.67 at $178.15

Feeders August down 15 at $245.60

Hogs August up 2.32 at $103.225

 

Corn Dec23 down 6 at $5.305

Beans Nov23 down 20 at $13.82

KC Wheat Sep23 down 4 at $8.57

 

Corn Dec24 down 2 at $5.28

Beans Nov24 down 6 at $12.87

KC Wheat July24 up 15 at $8.32

 

Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1- today: $5.51 (insurance price $5.91)

Nov beans April 1- today:  $12.69 (insurance price $13.76)

 

Market Recap:

We begin the week sharply higher with war concerns and summer heat premium added to the market. Corn and wheat were the front runners with quick rallies to 570dec and 920sept. November soybeans have been steadily grinding higher since the beginning of June and are at the ‘top third’ of the market that we have been exposed to since the first of the year, currently around $13.90/bu. Beans have pulled back 40c off the $14.30 highs, but we are still $2.60 higher than the low we placed in early June. We will likely have continued volatility as we work through August until combines get out into the fields for harvest. How can one be in front of this volatility? Doing something is probably better than doing nothing. Buying a put can hold a value together to allow you to get to another time of year/market. That will allow you to confidently sit and see if the market will present another opportunity prior to expiration and it will allow you to know more about your crop potential. Another way of managing volatility is to have orders in place. With overnight markets tending to spark some big trading ranges, having an order in place can put you in position to take advantage of the volatility if the market. On the technical side of the markets, corn/beans/wheat have all reached the ‘overbought’ area on the charts, which could lead to a change in momentum. Cattle have pulled back and have worked towards being ‘oversold’ relative to technical momentum.

Basis: Corn basis is still holding strong with quick shipment prems but may fade as we work towards harvest. On remaining unpriced bushels, one can look at putting grain on basis contracts and leave the futures price open if one would like to see if an August weather rally is in the works. Soybean basis has weakened dramatically in the past 10 days and will likely work towards a harvest type value in coming weeks.

 

Forecast:

Weather models went a bit wetter overnight with mostly 0.5” amounts expected for much of the corn belt over the next 5 days, while GFS added rains for the eastern corn belt in the 6-15 day period. Euro added rains for western corn belt, particularly the Dakotas. After temps moderate this weekend, an average/below average temp range is expected for the first half of August.

 

Economy:

The Fed decided to raise rates another quarter point at their meeting on Wednesday- markets responded well following the meeting as traders perceived comments as suggesting limited rate hikes the remainder of the year.

A laundry list of economic updates was released this week, many of them ‘better’ than expected. United States Q2 GDP was +2.4% versus +1.8% expected. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure called the Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) price index was 3.0% year-over-year compared to 3.8% in May. The Labor Department also reported employee pay increased only 1%, down from 1.2% in the first quarter.

Nearly all indicators point to a relatively healthy job market and cooling inflation, leading some economists to relax or rescind their predictions of a recession in the coming months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stuck by his messaging of continuing to fight inflation until it has returned to levels the Fed is comfortable with (2% being their long-term goal).

 

Something that probably means nothing: 

Fans of Major League Baseball can now own a stake in the Atlanta Braves after the franchise became the leagues only publicly traded team on Wednesday.

 

Quote of the Week:

“Gratitude is the healthiest of all human emotions. The more you express gratitude for what you have, the more likely you will have even more to express gratitude for.”-Zig Ziglar