This week’s action:
Corn Sep unch at $4.89
Beans Sep down 14 at $13.40
Fats August unch at $176.950
Feeders August down 2.125 at $245.175
Hogs July up 3.15 at $98.850
Corn Dec23 up 1 at $4.96
Beans Nov23 down 24 at $13.19
KC Wheat Sep23 up 28 at $8.21
Corn Dec24 up 2 at $4.99
Beans Nov24 up 20 at $12.29
KC Wheat July24 up 14 at $7.77
Dec corn Feb 1- today: $5.54 (insurance price $5.91)
Nov beans April 1- today: $12.63 (insurance price $13.76)
December corn was mostly flat on the week but did finish above its low of $4.855 on Wednesday. This is the lowest level the Dec23 contract has traded since 2021.
November soybeans down 24 cents from last week’s close but 72 cents off its Monday high. Nov23 is still trading about 63 cents higher than June 28 and nearly $2.00 higher than the end of May.
The July WASDE will be released Wednesday (July 12). The report will include the updated acreage numbers from the June 30 report.
There is debate ongoing whether USDA will lower corn and soybean yields. The only years they lowered yield in May or June were in 2013, 2019, and 2022, which were all due to planting delays. The USDA has not lowered yield in the July report since 2013.
CORN: If they use 86.2 million acres harvested and lower corn yield from 181.5 to 175.0 (for example), we could still have the second highest production ever around 15.1 billion bushels. In this scenario, we could have carryout over 2.1 billion bushels and over 15% stocks/use. This would be the largest carryout number since 2018/19 when the average farm price was just $3.61 (USDA is currently projecting farm price to be $4.80).
SOYBEANS: USDA will use the 83.5 million acres from the June 30 report (4 million lower than March intentions). Many expect they may have to lower yield because of record low crop ratings. If they were to lower yield from 52.0 to 51.0, without making major export/usage changes, carryout would be a slim 132 million bushels (3% stocks/use). If they do lower yield, anticipate adjusting demand to keep carryout above 200 million bushels.
Last week’s rains have reduced some of the central US drought. 67% of the US corn crop and 60% of the soybean crop are in “drought areas”. Both are 3% improved from last week. Illinois is under 85% drought, which is an 8% improvement week over week and Iowa improved 5% to 87%. Missouri is still struggling at 99%. Nebraska is at 82% in drought but has dramatically improved from 99% just four weeks ago.
US 10-year treasuries are once again traded above 4.0% and 30-year mortgages 7.22%. Canadian lenders are now seeing 60, 70, and even 90-year mortgages.
The Baltic Dry Index (benchmark for the price of moving major raw material by sea) dropped to its lowest July value in five years and is at its absolute lowest value since June 2020.
Individuals and businesses filed more than 217,000 bankruptcy cases through June. That’s a 17% increase filed at this point in 2022.
A Canadian judge ruled a “thumbs up” emoji can amount to a contractual agreement and ordered a farmer to pay $82,000 for not delivering on a contract to a grain buyer. The farmer replied to a text message picture of a contract with a “thumbs up” in March 2021 and did not deliver product harvest prices were higher.
Something that probably means nothing:
Per Reuters, the July 3 was the hottest day in recorded world history.
On July 6, 1936, 25 states were over 100F, and seven states were over 110F. North Dakota reached 121F.
Phoenix, Arizona hasn’t reached 121F in almost 30 years.
Quote of the Week:
“The most important shot in golf is the next one.” – Ben Hogan