This week’s action:

Corn Sep +16 @ 6.35

Corn Dec +18 @ 6.25

Beans Aug +6 @ 15.16

Beans Nov +3 @ 13.98

KC Wheat July +41 @ 9.50

Aug Feeders -2.175 @ 171.825

Aug Fats -.675 @ 133.925

Aug Hogs +6 @ 109.025

Aug Crude -4 @ 104.52

Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1 – June 30: $6.80

Dec corn since Russian invasion: $7.10

Nov beans April 1 – today: $14.90

Sep KC wheat since Russian invasion: $11.07

Recap:

The week began with overspill weakness from last week in the row crop markets. We have stabilized since then, but to put things in perspective: new crop corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded below pre-invasion levels on Tuesday. These three contracts have rebounded but are all curiously hanging right at their 200 DayMovingAverages. If you are bullish, you should be cheering on closes above $6.16 Dec corn, $13.79 Nov beans, and $9.31 Sep KC wheat. The quicker the better. Many are expecting this afternoon’s commitment of traders report to show reduced hedge fund length in corn and soybeans as higher interest rates and thus far mostly benign weather has taken a lot of juice out of the market.

Since June 14, corn area experiencing drought has grown from 17% to 29% as of July 5. Look for that to increase further when the next maps are released. Below is the most recent UNL Drought Monitor compared to the same week in 2012. Although parts of the western corn belt are extremely dry today, we are in better shape in the east than in 2012. By late August 2012 virtually the entire central time zone was in deep red.

Forecast:

The latest 10-day forecast is showing dryness for the central plains with more rainfall projected in the southeast. High heat is also forecasted but remember, it’s JULY. This is not a rare event.

Nebraska has a neat website to view rainfall across the state in real time. If you have the time, click on the link. It appears many areas of the state have had good spouts of moisture over the last week or so.

https://nednr.nebraska.gov/NeRain/Maps/maps

Outside Markets:

The nearby August crude oil contract has fallen 15% over the last month as many commodities have endured a rough stretch as new developments from the Russian invasion have been few and far between. The US strategic oil inventories are at levels not seen since 1981. Investors are becoming more wary about economic prospects globally and specifically in the EU. As money flows into “stable” investments, the US Dollar has rallied to parity with the Euro- the first time in 20 years. This will be a headwind to exports- ag commodities included. Analysts expect the FED to raise interest rates by another .75% later this month.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

Here is the day December corn made its pre-harvest contract high over the past ten years. Four of the last ten years it has occurred in July/Aug/Sep.

Thanks and have a great weekend!