Please RSVP for Axtell Golf Outing by Tuesday 8/22!
August 29th: 10am @ Awarii Dunes in Axtell, NE
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This week’s price action:
Corn Sep23 down 9.25 at 475.5
Corn Dec23 down 10.25 at 487.25
Corn Dec24 down 3.0 at 510
Beans Sep23 down 48.50 at 1336
Beans Nov23 down 24.75 at 1306.25
Beans Nov24 down 8.0 at 1254.75
KC Wheat Dec23 down 2.0 at 767
Hogs Aug23 up 1.05 at 102.15
Fats Aug23 down .70 at 180.325
Feeders Aug23 down 1.85 at 247.675
Markets:
Markets were basically unchanged immediately following the WASDE report, but lost steam after the noon hour and FSA’s acreage report and closed lower on the day.
WASDE Report:
The US corn and soybean balance sheets are attached for your own analysis. USDA report was negative old crop, friendly new crop on corn; neutral old crop and what I’d call bullish new crop beans.
The most intriguing numbers are the soybean ending stocks. 2023 ending stocks are on par with 2022, but the projected farm price is $1.50 lower. There’s not a lot of data points, but as you can see below any year with soybean ending stocks below 300 million bushels, the post-harvest futures market was trading North of $14.00.
Exports:
US corn becomes competitive again with global exporters. As the US moves into its harvest season, US corn at the Gulf is now a 20 cent discount to Brazil. This is the first time since January and perfect timing as harvest nears and new bushels hit the pavement. Weekly exports were the strongest in weeks. Is the demand tide starting to turn with sub $6.00 corn? Old crop and new crop basis remain near a dollar spread in certain areas. They will converge with hopes of new crop making the improvement. Cash sales for new crop should be your last resort.
On a similar note, US Gulf wheat is priced at comparable levels to Russia for the first time in 18 months. US exports overall can absolutely get worse on a shaky global economy, but it is hard to think it worsens given the previous year’s decline.
FSA 2023 Planted Acreage:
In addition to the WASDE today, FSA also released their planted acreage report. It appears to validate current WASDE estimates, so historically speaking, it is unlikely that NASS adjusts their planted acreage levels for this crop year. The report was in line with estimates, but markets moved lower after the 12pm release.
Weather:
The trade will turn its attention back to weather as it digests the balance sheet updates from today’s report. This week’s drought monitor featured improvements across much of the corn belt, primarily Illinois, northern Indiana and eastern Missouri.
Even with the improvements, there’s still a significant portion of the Midwest in varying degrees of drought.
Both the 6-10- and 11-15-day maps indicate below average precip for the western corn belt, but the GFS and Euro models don’t line up well. Longer term models add some rain but also increased temperatures.
Economy:
CPI Inflation rose slightly in July and sits at 3.2% vs 3% in June and 8.5% a year ago. US food inflation slipped to a 21-month low of 4.9%. These are numbers our current government wants us to celebrate, but fact remains the middle and lower class continues its grand-canyon-size gap from financial stability. The amount of personal savings held by Americans is now sitting at 862 billion, down from 2.3 trillion 3 years ago. US credit card debt topped 1 trillion for the first time in history. This all on top of last week’s US debt downgrade.
Not the markets:
The Iowa State Fair began this week on Thursday, so here is some state fair trivia:
- First state fair: 1854 (total budget $323)
- Current size: 445 acres
- The Fair will hand out over 40,000 ribbons
- Iowa Pork Producers will serve about 48,000 pork chops
- The highest ever Fair attendance was in 2019 with 1,170,375 visitors
- This year’s guests will have the opportunity to try a new offering, the “Iowa Twinkie”
- Created by Whatcha Smokin’ BBQ in Luther, IA the Iowa Twinkie includes pulled pork, corn, ranch, and cheese, stuffed in a jalepeno, wrapped in bacon and smoked.
