8.26.22 Market update

This week’s action:

Corn Dec up 42 @ $6.65

Beans Nov up 59 @ $14.65

KC Wheat Sep up 43 @ $8.89

Feeders Sep down 3.125 @ $181.95

Fats Oct down 2.225 @ $143.05

Oct Hogs down 2.25 @ $90.85

Oct Crude up 3.59 @ $93.21

 

Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1 – June 30: $6.80

Dec corn since Russian invasion: $6.69

Nov beans April 1 – today: $14.58

Sep KC wheat since Russian invasion: $10.42

 

Recap:

Row crop markets are firmer this week as the Pro Farmer Tour made its way through the corn belt. Nebraska was reported to be 158.53 bpa corn yield compared to 182 last year and the three-year average of 177. Typically, the final yield number from this event is understated (lower) than the final USDA yield, but there’s no denying yield checks are lower than last year in many areas. This was mostly expected but is confirming lower production in the western corn belt. Expect basis to remain firm post-harvest as southwest Kansas/Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle feed yards will rely on northern bushels to meet their needs.

Many end users are showing 50-100 cent premiums for September corn. Be mindful of how your fields are progressing. It’s never fun to harvest low production dryland, but it is fun to be rewarded on the front end of a harvest inverse if you can execute.

Shippers are becoming more comfortable with Ukrainian logistics which is shifting European imports. Ukraine is offering corn about 70 cents cheaper than the US Gulf market. Europe is trading back their Brazilian purchases and securing Ukrainian corn at cheaper values. This combined with a massive Russian wheat crop allegedly on the way could keep a lid on prices domestically.

Statistics Canada will release their official new crop estimates Monday morning. Many expect production to be around 50% larger than last year. CONAB (Brazil) released their first estimates for their upcoming crop Wednesday and they are optimistic production will be quite higher than last year with more normal weather and increased planted acreage.

 

Forecast:

The forecast stays dry west of the Missouri River but the eastern states are hoping they receive one more shot of rain to finish beans over the next two weeks.

Dublin will be overcast with temps in the mid 60s with a light breeze on Saturday.

 

Outside Markets:

Bloomberg reported 1 in 6 American households have fallen behind on their utility payments as energy prices have surged this summer – the highest delinquency rate on record. As Americans are battling inflation, DollarTree reported a very successful Q2. Their sales increased 6.7%. July home sales were 22.5% lower year over year, which is the largest annual decline in history. Every time the monthly supply of new homes eclipses 9 months, a recession has followed. We are currently at 10.8 months supply. Lumber futures hit a 52-week low this week. Used car values are down 10% in 2022, back to the levels of early 2021. They are still about 10% higher than 2019.

European natural gas prices are drastically higher than US prices, and multiple anhydrous plants in Europe have announced they are stopping or slowing anhydrous production as a result. Last week, the US exported a record weekly amount of oil and petroleum products.

 

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

If you are an 18-year-old college freshman, Nebraska’s football record is 127-98 in your lifetime.

Go Big Red.