Last call for Beemer Golf Outing!
August 10th: 10am @ Indian Trails in Beemer, NE
Please RSVP for Axtell by Tuesday 8/22!
August 29th: 10am @ Awarii Dunes in Axtell, NE
This week’s price action:
Corn Sep23 down 36.25 at 484.75
Corn Dec23 down 33.0 at 497.5
Corn Dec24 down 15.0 at 513
Beans Sep23 down 48.50 at 1384.5
Beans Nov23 down 51.0 at 1331
Beans Nov24 down 24.25 at 1262.75
KC Wheat Dec23 down 88.0 at 769
Hogs Aug23 down 2.13 at 101.1
Fats Aug23 up 2.88 at 181.025
Feeders Aug23 up 3.93 at 249.525
Ukraine naval drones attacked a Russian port overnight. The port handles 2% of the world’s oil supply and exports grain.
The attack had moderate impact on grain markets overnight, but much like Wednesday’s overnight strength on Black Sea news, was squashed in the first few trading hours of the day session.
StoneX released their yield estimates on Wednesday coming in at 177 on corn and 50.5 on beans. The data for their estimates comes from producer surveys.
Below are the last few years of StoneX August estimates compared to USDA Final Yield.
USDA’s August WASDE report will be released next Friday 8/11. The July WASDE was the first time USDA has adjusted yield in July since 2012.
Analyst report estimates have not been published yet, but August yield estimates will differ from July data, as they will now include farmer reported yields and utilize satellite-based data to come to their estimates.
This link is a publication from USDA in 2021 about yield estimate methodology if you’re interested in learning more about how they calculate yield during the growing season.
Pro Farmer’s crop tour will start in 2 weeks. The Western leg of their tour will include evening events in Grand Island (8/21), Nebraska City (8/22), and Spencer, IA (8/23)
Weather models remain favorable for most of the corn belt over the next 15 days. More moisture and cooler temperatures won’t help any rallies related to Black Sea events.
The biggest headline this week was ratings agency Fitch downgrading the US Government’s credit rating to AA+, down from the top AAA level given to the most reliable debt-holders. The move drew criticism from the White House and Treasury. Fitch cited “steady deterioration in standards of governance” among other factors leading to the downgrade. The move comes after another ‘down-to-the-wire’ agreement on the debt ceiling was passed in June. Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s made a similar move in 2011.
Warren Buffet, cool and collected as always, told CNBC on Thursday, “There are some things people shouldn’t worry about. This is one.”
Ultimately, the move by Fitch does not have far-reaching implications in the short term, but it does draw formal attention to growing concern around the nation’s debt and ability to service it.
Something that probably means nothing:
Orange juice futures hit all-time highs last week, more than doubling over the last 2 years.
Have a great weekend!