This week’s action:  

Corn Dec down 6 @ $6.79

Beans Nov up 33 @ $14.44

KC Wheat Dec up 4 @ $9.36

Feeders Oct down 4.525 @ $181.050

Fats Oct down .100 @ $145.575

Oct Hogs up 3.575 @ $96.750

Oct Crude down 1.64 @ $85.14

Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1 – June 30: $6.80

Dec corn since Russian invasion: $6.70

Nov beans April 1 – today: $14.55

Dec KC wheat since Russian invasion: $10.32 

Recap:

Flash in the markets early week only to watch them slide towards Friday. USDA report on Monday came out with corn yield at 172.5bpa which was down 3bu from their August report and matched the average trade guess. The surprise on the report was harvested corn acres were lowered 1 million acres but still fell within the average carryout guess of 1.3944 billion bushels.

There were more fireworks in the soybean market with average estimate to cut yield by .4bu but USDA went a little further and printed a 1.4bu drop in yield at 50.5bpa, which was the lowest of pre-report estimates. Harvested acres were also cut 570k which in turn dropped production 118 million bushels below the average trade guess.

For ending stocks, we saw old crop corn lowered 5 million bushels and beans actually went up 15 million bushels. For new crop corn ending stocks, they were dropped 169 million bushels, but were only 5 million below the average trade guess. New crop bean ending stocks were adjusted 45 million bushel lower to a very tiiiiiiight 200 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were unchanged.

The 1st export sales report in the 2022/23 marketing year showed US Soybean export commitments at 929 mil bu. This was 110 mil bu (13%) more than a year ago and the 3^rd largest on record. Commitments to China at 103 mil bu more than last year and commitments to unknown are 12 mil bu larger. Of the major US buyers, commitments to Taiwan show the largest decline of 8 mil bu. While commitments for the year are higher, the USDA projects annual exports will decline 60 mil bu, which means that exporters have already sold 45% of the USDA forecast or the 2nd largest in 8 years.

US corn export demand over the last 4 weeks has been weak. This was largely expected given the return of Ukraine’s FOB market in early September and the associated decline in FOB basis in Brazil and Argentina. Consecutive weeks of rising Brazilian basis, suddenly US corn became the world’s most expensive origin – and by a wide margin.

New crop corn export commitments as of Sept 8^th total 484 mil bu, down a full 50% from the same week a year ago! The below graphic shows commitments as a percent of the USDA’s annual forecast and clearly demand is lagging. New crop sales to China sit at 127 mil bu, down 341 mil bu (70%).

Corn export commitments as of Mid-September correlate only very loosely with final demand, but exporters must average 35 mil bu every week between now and next August.

Finding new demand will be labored as South American origin maintains a discount of $.60-.95/bu to the US.

 Forecast:

Weather across southern U.S. growing areas looks favorable over the next 7-10 days as harvest activity gears up.

Outside Markets:

FedEx stock down 24% on Friday, on the back of cost cutting measures to deal with weak global shipment volumes. FedEx cited weakness in Asia as its main reason for a negative outlook.

From CNBC

“There is a lot of nervousness about how the global economy can affect the U.S. economy now, while the U.S. economy is dealing with its own set of very serious issues. I think that dynamic is what people have woken up to,” said Callie Cox, US investment analyst at eToro.

The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five as a comeback rally looks increasingly like a bear market bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 4.7% this week, while the S&P 500 is 3.8% lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 6.2%, headed toward its worst weekly loss since June.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

Imports to Los Angeles, Americas largest port, plunged 17% in August. It was the lowest import total in Los Angeles for any month since December, when volumes were suppressed by extreme landside congestion. It was also the lowest import total in LA for the month of August since 2014, eight years ago.