This week’s action:  

Corn Dec23 down 3 at $4.76

Beans Nov23 down 20 at $12.75

KC Wheat Dec23 down 49 at $6.62

Fats October down 2.80 at $184.175

Feeders October down 6.88 at $252.325

Hogs October down 1.33 at $80.20

Corn Dec24 down 1 at $5.06

Beans Nov24 up 3 at $12.59

KC Wheat July24 down 10 at $7.00

Market Recap:

Markets ended the week on a sharp slide following the Quarterly Stocks Report.

US corn stocks were 1.361 billion bushels. This is 91 million bushels less than the September WASDE, but only 16 million bushels fewer than was on hand in 2022.

On farm stocks were 605 million bushels representing 44% of total stocks. This is the highest on farm percentage since 2004. The state of Nebraska had 130 million bushels of corn on hand, with 68 million (52%) stored on the farm. This is compared to 2022 when Nebraska had 151 million bushels in storage, but only 33% was stored on the farm. Iowa had 277 million in storage compared to 255 million in 2022. On farm storage in Iowa was 39% compared to 37% in 2022.

Final 2022 yield was increased 0.1 bushel at 173.4 bpa and 79.1 million acres harvested resulting in 13.716 billion bushels of production. This year’s crop is currently projected to be 15.138 billion bushels using 87.1 million acres harvested with a 173.8 bpa yield.

Soybean stocks were only 6 million bushels less than 2022, with 268 million bushels carried over. On farm stocks were 72 million bushels (27%).

Soybean production in 2023 is projected to be 4.1 billion bushels using a 50.1 bpa over 82.8 million acres harvested. Last year production was 4.28 billion based on 86.2 million acres harvested with a 49.6 bpa yield.

A graph showing the average estimate of a stock market

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Forecast:

The northern states are likely to get rain but for the most part, the forecast is favorable for good harvest progress.

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Economy:

Over 40 million people will have their student loan payments return October 1.

Less than 1/3 of bank CEOs expect a “soft landing” for the economy.  Only 15% of rural bankers expect a stronger farm economy next year with almost half ag bankers forecasting a weaker farm economy.

U.S. credit card debt with over 20% interest rates rose to a record high of $1.03 trillion.

The National Association of Realtors housing affordability index fell to its lowest level in 38 years.

Creighton University expects cash rents to increase 1.3% next year.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

This graphic shows the shift in irrigated farmland since 1997. Each blue dot is an increase in 1,000 irrigated acres and each red dot is a decrease in 1,000 acres. Irrigated acreage has increased 1.7 million acres over the past 25 years or so, primarily in Eastern Nebraska and along the Mississippi River.

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Quote of the Week:

“Never leave that till tomorrow which you can do today.” – Benjamin Franklin

Enjoy your weekend!