This week’s action:  

Corn Dec up 19 @ $6.85

Beans Nov down 7 @ $14.13

KC Wheat Dec up 54 @ $9.32

Feeders Oct up 1.55 @ $185.575

Fats Oct up 1.125 @ $145.675

Oct Hogs up 3.15 @ $93.175

Oct Crude up .20 @ $86.80

Seasonal Averages:

Dec corn Feb 1 – June 30: $6.80

Dec corn since Russian invasion: $6.70

Nov beans April 1 – today: $14.55

Dec KC wheat since Russian invasion: $10.32

Recap:

Wheat prices started the action this week on news Putin is unhappy with the Ukraine export corridor and is considering shutting it down. He claims safe passage was first agreed to in order to avoid a global hunger crisis in developing countries. Most of the boats from Ukraine are landing in well-established countries. A late week meeting between Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan seems to have calmed things down for now. New crop wheat prices have rallied over a dollar the past three weeks. Planting conditions are becoming a major concern as most of the HRW belt is dealing with rock hard soil with few chances for softening rains before October. Fall pricing for HRW crop insurance ends Wednesday. The current coverage price for NE/CO/SD is about $8.72/bu vs last year at $7.10/bu.

Corn and soybean harvest is in its infant stage. Early yield reports are much lower than last year, but most expect improvement as harvest progresses. Keep your eye on basis opportunities. This harvest will be sporadic and new crop demand is high in the western corn belt for both early and post-harvest bushels.  

Fall crop markets closed the week on a good note as traders position for Monday’s WASDE report. The average analyst guess is a corn yield of 172.5 bpa (175.4 in August) and a bean yield at 51.5 bpa (51.9 in August). Keep your eyes on the soybean balance sheet as the US Ag Attaché is lowering expectations of Chinese imports. Their new forecast is about 60 million bushels below current USDA estimates. If realized this could increase new crop carryout 25%. According to Moore Research, November soybeans from September 19-October 2 have lost value 13 out of the last 15 years.

Forecast:

Temperatures cool down a bit with spotty rain chances over the weekend. Most of the western corn belt should have good harvest weather beginning the middle of next week.

 Outside Markets:

The US dollar hit a 20-year high this week as uncertainties grow around the world economy. Energies are again demanding attention as volatility continues. Each of the four trading days this week for October crude experienced greater than 2.5% swings, including a -5.7% move Thursday. The European Central Bank hiked interest rates .75%, its biggest ever increase. Many analysts expect the FED to raise interest rates .75% later this month. This would mark the fifth time increasing rates in 2022. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index declined 4% in August. The index is still about 35% higher than it was in January 2021. Car dealerships are sitting on a lot of “expensive” used inventory as interest rates creep up and 2023 models begin arriving.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

Major League Baseball has agreed to new rule changes for next year:

1. NO DEFENSIVE SHIFT: two fielders on each side of second base with both feet on the dirt.
2. Bigger bases; home plate the same size- runners now have 9 fewer inches to cover between bases when stealing.
3. 15-second pitch clock with bases empty
4. 20-second pitch clock with runners on

Enjoy your weekend!

 -Jamison Jensen