Weekly Market Action:
Dec21 Corn -12 @ 5.30
March22 Corn @ 5.3925
Dec22 Corn -2 @ 5.2450
Nov21 Beans -14 @ 12.4250
Jan22 Beans @ 12.53
Nov 22 Beans @ 12.48
Dec21 Fats @ 130.175
Nov21 Feeders @ 161.000
WASDE report on Tuesday, October 12th coming up. Reviewing two companies who spend a lot of time predicting carry outs vs USDA Sept 10 report, there are large differences in opinions. Debate continues over yield and export numbers and the effect that will have on ending stocks for corn and soybeans.
Corn: Agresource has the lowest carryout at 950 million bushels, which is a very bullish number. RJO’s carryout is at 1.735 million, with a 5bpa higher yield and 300 million bushels lower in exports. The RJO carryout is closer to the last 5 years, while Agresource would be the tightest since 2012. Notable yield estimates from Barchart are 182.3bpa and StoneX at 176.6bpa.
Soybeans: USDA has the tightest carryout at 185 million bushels with the highest export number and in line with the lowest yield. RJO comes in at 385-million-bushel carryout with 52bpa yield estimate. If the RJO number is realized it would be the largest since the 19/20 marketing year (525 million bushel). Notable yield estimates there from Barchart and StoneX are at 51.3bpa.
Take away: To see a spread this wide is rare. Nobody really knows where this yield will end up and more importantly where exports land. If you are at all uncertain with where you sit and want to walk through that, let’s communicate that Monday. Be watching for your GrainBridge report that are sent out every Friday evening.
|CORN||RJO||USDA 9/10/21||AGRESOURCE||SOYBEANS||RJO||USDA 9/10/21||AGRESOURCE|
|ENDING STX||1735||1408||950||ENDING STX||385||185||300|
CBT Brokers estimate that the managed money has sold 3,000 contracts of wheat and bought 2,500 contracts of corn and 3,200 contracts of soybeans. In soy products, funds have bought 1,400 contracts of soy oil and 3,000 soymeal.
November Crude Oil futures have rallied above $80/barrel. With winter around the corner, energy values show no sign of slowing. Next upside price target is $84-$86.
48-hour forecast is dry across the Plains with showers starting to break out across the N Plains and W Midwest on Sunday. An above normal temp pattern is forecasted with highs in the 70/80s.
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Testimonials are representative of all reasonably comparable accounts and are not indicative of future performance or success.
Matthew is a corn and soybean farmer from Aurora, Nebraska. Check out his video to learn more about his relationship with Tredas!
Nate started out with just a few acres of ground and has worked to build his farm for decades. For him, the growth was easy, but the marketing? Not so much. Nate loves the options his Tredas Consultant, Zane Abner provides.
Gary farms corn and soybeans when he’s not feeding cattle near Bertrand, NE. He goes into detail about what sets Tredas apart from other companies.
Rob has a long history of working with corn, soybeans & cattle. He loves the hands-off approach of partnering with Tredas and how the Team keeps him motivated to keep making sales.