5.6.22 Market Commentary
Weekly Action:
Corn July down 19 @ 7.86
Corn Dec down 22 @ 7.23
Beans July down 59 @ 16.25
Beans Nov down 44 @ 14.71
KC Wheat Sep up 71 @ 11.75
Feeders Aug up 4.15 @ 174.50
Fats June up 3.275 @ 136.65
Seasonal Averages:
Dec corn Feb 1 – today: $6.62
Dec corn since Russian invasion: $6.84
Nov beans April 1 – today: $14.92
Sep KC wheat since Russian invasion: $10.87
** If you are looking for confidence to make additional sales, December corn is still over 60 cents above it’s seasonal average.
Planting Progress:
As of last Sunday, American corn acres were 14% planted (42% this time last year and five-year average is 33%). For comparison to another late planted crop, this same week in 2019 the US was 23% planted. I would not expect much progress has been made this week with the widespread rains recently across most of the corn belt. Nebraska is 28% planted compared to the five-year average of 33%. The “I” states are behind their respective planting paces 30-40%. Soybeans nationally are 8% planted compared to the five-year average of 13%. The weather is expected to be improve this upcoming week for the eastern corn belt.
As we progress through the seasonality of marketing pre-harvest bushels it’s always important to know what our plan is. Below is a quick snippet of Nassim Taleb’s book The Black Swan. For the past two months it’s been easy to sit back assuming the market is going higher for several valid reasons (drought, late planting, inflation, Ukraine, etc.), but as we’ve seen in the stock market, nothing HAS to go higher forever. For example, in only six months Netflix is down 73% from its high in November.I’m sure stock owners never thought that would ever be a possibility. December 2022 corn has rallied 32% since January 1. We are likely going to experience increased volatility as the market trades daily headlines, so it is important we have a plan to manage risk to the farm with the least emotional stress.
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
The pre-harvest high in Dec21 corn was scored on May 7 last year at $6.36.
Enjoy your weekend!
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Testimonials are representative of all reasonably comparable accounts and are not indicative of future performance or success.
Matthew Grosshans
Matthew is a corn and soybean farmer from Aurora, Nebraska. Check out his video to learn more about his relationship with Tredas!
Nate Oehlrich
Nate started out with just a few acres of ground and has worked to build his farm for decades. For him, the growth was easy, but the marketing? Not so much. Nate loves the options his Tredas Consultant, Zane Abner provides.
Gary Robison
Gary farms corn and soybeans when he’s not feeding cattle near Bertrand, NE. He goes into detail about what sets Tredas apart from other companies.
Rob Ita
Rob has a long history of working with corn, soybeans & cattle. He loves the hands-off approach of partnering with Tredas and how the Team keeps him motivated to keep making sales.