We are a week away from the next USDA supply/demand report on Oct 12th. Reviewing two major companies who spend a lot of time predicting carry outs vs USDA from Sept 10th, you can see the large difference in opinions. Debate continues over yield and export numbers and the effect that will have on ending stocks for corn and soybeans.
Corn: AgResource has the lowest c/o on corn at 950mln bu which is a decisively bullish number. RJO has 5bpa more and lower exports by 300mil coming in at 1,735mil c/o. The RJO c/o is closer to the last 5 yrs, while the ARC c/o would be the tightest since 2012. Notable yield estimates from Barchart is 182.3bpa and StoneX at 176.6bpa
Soybeans: USDA has the tightest carryout at 185mln with the highest export number and in line with the lowest yield. RJO comes in at 52bpa with exports in line with USDA and 385mil/bu c/o. If the RJO number is realized it would be the largest since the 19/20 marketing year that came in at 525mil/bu. Notable yield estimates from Barchart and StoneX both at 51.3bpa.
Main take away: To see a spread this wide is rare. Nobody really knows where this yield will end up and more importantly where exports truly land. Prices have been volatile all year, however they are still in the upper end of their range from the start of 2021.
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Matthew is a corn and soybean farmer from Aurora, Nebraska. Check out his video to learn more about his relationship with Tredas!
Nate started out with just a few acres of ground and has worked to build his farm for decades. For him, the growth was easy, but the marketing? Not so much. Nate loves the options his Tredas Consultant, Zane Abner provides.
Gary farms corn and soybeans when he’s not feeding cattle near Bertrand, NE. He goes into detail about what sets Tredas apart from other companies.
Rob has a long history of working with corn, soybeans & cattle. He loves the hands-off approach of partnering with Tredas and how the Team keeps him motivated to keep making sales.