This week’s action: 

Corn Dec up 8  @ $6.91

Beans Nov up 18 @ $13.83

KC Wheat Dec down 19 @ $9.53

Feeders Nov down .425 @ $174.975

Fats Dec down .10 @ $147.80

Dec Hogs up 5.30  @ $82.37

Nov Crude down 7.53  @ $85.67

Recap:

The WASDE was in line with expectations regarding corn and supportive beans on a lower-than-expected national yield. Corn yield was projected at 171.9 bpa vs 172.5 last month. Ending stocks were only projected about 50 million bushels less (1.172 billion bushels) after export and feed use revisions.

 Soybeans were projected to be 49.8 bpa vs the average estimate of 50.5. Ending stocks remained at 200 million bushels, largely due to a decreased export forecast.  

 Reports of low Mississippi River levels affecting barge traffic are hitting mainstream media. October-December is our biggest export window for U.S. soybeans. The majority of these exports travel through the U.S. Gulf. This could have a major impact on current USDA export estimates as the western export hubs are already running at full capacity. More immediately, it could have major implications moving bulk fertilizer north from the U.S. Gulf in time for Spring application.

 Western corn belt basis continues to stay firm as traders are buying FOB bushels to send south as they want truck bushels to help supplement rail logistics in the southwest. Trains have been undependable for months and there is more chatter of a worker strike in November.

 Look for basis to stay firm for both corn and beans in the central plains.

Forecast:

Generally favorable harvest going forward. Concern growing for those who wish to apply fall NH3 as dryness persists.

 Outside Markets:

The September CPI was released on Thursday. The Core Consumer Price Index (excludes food and energy) was 6.6%, the highest since 1982. The overall CPI increased 0.4% from August and 8.2% year over year. With continuing inflation, many analysts expect the FED to increase rates 0.75% basis points in November and 0.50% in December. The stock market initially reacted negatively but had a large recovering rally by Thursday afternoon.

 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down 31% since this time last year. This is the largest ever drawdown in a year period. This comes as OPEC+ announced a 2 million barrel/day reduction in November. The U.S. is down to about 50 days of consumption in reserves.

Something that Probably Means Nothing:

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