This week’s action:
Corn Dec up 5 @ $6.83
Beans Nov down 1 @ $13.65
KC Wheat Dec down 22 @ $9.70
Feeders Nov up .80 @ $175.40
Fats Dec up .90 @ $147.90
Dec Hogs up .60 @ $77.07
Nov Crude up 12.87 @ $92.61
Relatively quiet week in the grain markets as trade awaits more clarity on yield and Black Sea tensions. Crude oil up big this week with news that OPEC is cutting oil production by two million barrels per day. Corn exports continued to struggle this week, and we are currently 50% behind last year’s pace. U.S. corn is currently $1.40 more expensive than Ukraine, $1 higher than Argentina and 40¢ more than Brazil. Soybean exports were poor this week as well but still 9% better than last year and 3rd highest on record.
USDA report on Wednesday 10/12. RJO ’Brien’s Rich Feltes shares his thoughts below:
U.S. forecast remains dry with normal temps. N. Brazil and Argentina both forecasted to get some much-needed rains in the next two weeks.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River have now caused the largest closure on record. There are roughly 2,900 barges stuck in lower Mississippi. This is bound to start showing up on grain inspections. The Russia/Ukraine war continues to get more intense, and Putin is now threatening to use nuclear power adding to more uncertainty in the Black Sea. Overall, it seems these threats are getting more and more real. President Biden addressed them this week calling it potential Armageddon. This will continue to cause volatility within macro and commodity markets until a peace agreement is reached.
Something that Probably Means Nothing:
Since 1950, September has been the worst month for the stock market. Additionally, October has been the most volatile. Baptiste Wicht (The Poor Swiss) – “There is a myth surrounding October in the stock market some call The October Effect. People think that the stock market declines more during October than during other months. There were two big crashes in October. The Great Crash of 1929 and the Crash of 1987 were both in October.
But if we take the statistics over a long time, this effect is not significant. More bear markets were ending in October than starting in October. This data makes it more interesting. And these two crashes are old enough for most people to ignore them. Because of these points, fewer and fewer people believe in the October Effect.
However, according to data, October is the most volatile month in the stock market. There are more large swings in the stock market during October than during any other month. So, you need to be ready for some strong volatility during October.” – Baptiste Wicht (The Poor Swiss)
Nebraska won back-to-back Big Ten football games for the first time since 2018. GBR!
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Testimonials are representative of all reasonably comparable accounts and are not indicative of future performance or success.
Matthew is a corn and soybean farmer from Aurora, Nebraska. Check out his video to learn more about his relationship with Tredas!
Nate started out with just a few acres of ground and has worked to build his farm for decades. For him, the growth was easy, but the marketing? Not so much. Nate loves the options his Tredas Consultant, Zane Abner provides.
Gary farms corn and soybeans when he’s not feeding cattle near Bertrand, NE. He goes into detail about what sets Tredas apart from other companies.
Rob has a long history of working with corn, soybeans & cattle. He loves the hands-off approach of partnering with Tredas and how the Team keeps him motivated to keep making sales.