6.7.24 Tredas Recap

Weekly Action:

KC Wheat July24 down 46 at $6.65

Corn July24 up 3 at $4.49

Beans July24 down 27 at $11.78

Hogs July24 down 4.55 at $93.525

Fats June24 flat at $182.05

Feeders Aug24 down 1.925 at $254.80

Corn Dec24 up 1 at $4.68

Beans Nov24 down 28 at $11.57

Corn seasonal average (85% through): $4.72

Soybean seasonal average (45% through): $11.85

Market Recap:

Corn:

Crop conditions: Initial US corn conditions surpassed last year’s rating. Crop was rated 75% good to excellent nationally as of Sunday vs 70% expected. This time last year we were mid-60s, so off to a better start vs a year ago and off to our best start in 6 years. Impressive to also see that 100% G/E in Pennsylvania!

Planting progress: 91% planted nationally vs 92% expected. This time last year we were 95% complete.

Soybeans:

Planting progress: 78% complete vs 80% expected. 89% last year. 73% 5-year avg.

Overall grain lookout & Basis:

Overall, tough 10 day stretch here for corn and beans. We appear to have found some support at major levels. Corn tested $4.60 and was able to bounce back positive in a great outside trading day on Thursday. Gave a little back Friday after hitting our head on some moving averages in the $4.70 range. Little congestion with moving averages in the 4.70-4.80 range and ultimately our 200 dma at $4.90.

Similar on beans, found support in the $11.50 range, which would be similar spots that we tested and were able to trade higher from in mid and late April. We do have some moving average congestion in the 11.75-11.90 range, so if we are able to crack $11.90, only the 200dma (at $12.24) stand between market and the gap that’s still open at $12.40.

Weather:

Forecasted rains differ between the GFS and EU models. The GFS model is forecasting heavy precipitation for SW Kansas while the EU model is drier.

Rains will obviously be needed throughout the growing season, but we are starting from a better soil moisture profile than this time last year.

Economy:

Gasoline futures are 7% lower than last year. The average gas price in the U.S. is $3.48/gallon vs $3.54/gallon one year ago.

In May, 414,000 immigrants (both legal and Illegal) gained a job, while 663,000 native-born jobs were LOST. The U.S. has basically added zero jobs for native born workers since 2018.  

Below is a basket of commodities and their year-over-year changes in valuations.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Pat Sajack hosted his last Wheel of Fortune episode this week. He has been the host of the show for 41 seasons and over 8,000 episodes.

He is walking away from his $14 million/year salary, but he reportedly makes an additional $15 million/year from licensing deals. These deals include using his image on over 20,000 slot machines around the world.

   Quote of the Week:

“A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.” – Yogi Berra

Enjoy your weekend!