8.30.24 Tredas Market Recap
Weekly Action:
Corn Dec24 up 10 at $4.01
Beans Nov24 up 26 at $9.99
KC Wheat Dec24 up 30 $5.66
Hogs Oct24 up 1.675 at $82.25
Fats Oct24 up 3.10 at $178.675
Feeders Oct24 up 4.675 at $237.80
Corn Dec25 $4.39
Beans Nov25 $10.45
KC Wheat July25 $5.89
*Markets will be closed Monday, September 2 for the Labor Day holiday.
Market Recap:
Whether you believe it or not, this was one of the more productive weeks for the row crop markets in Chicago!
December corn: first positive week since July 26 and only the third positive week since June 14.
November soybeans: first positive week since July 19 and only the third positive week since June 14.
December KC Wheat: first positive week since July 26 and only the third positive week since May 24.
As of August 22, US corn exports are reported to be 16.1% of USDA’s 2024/25 export forecast, which is a 3-year high for that date. This is encouraging because in July, this percentage was only 6.5%, which was the lowest in 5 years and second lowest since 2010.
CF, Koch, and Nutrien are the big three in terms of Nitrogen production in the U.S. Below is a graphic from Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert on Twitter).
These three companies share of production:
NH3 – 73.65%
Urea – 84.3%
UAN – 81.8%
Weather:
A large swath of the western corn belt (including essentially the entire state of Iowa) realized solid rains this week. The GFS shows potential for good moisture across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio in the next few days. It does appear to be mostly dry about everywhere after this weekend.
Economy:
A survey was recently published asking people if they still believe in the “American Dream.”
In 2012, 53% of respondents stated they believed it was still possible to achieve the American Dream.
In 2024, only 34% believe this to be true.
From Redfin, investors purchased 1 out of every 6 homes sold in America were bought by investors in Q2 this year.
The US national deficit is 8.1% of GDP. This is historically high and is in the company of World War II, the Global Financial Crisis, and Covid.
Allstate is set to increase home insurance rates for California customers by an average of 34.1%. The rate hike will take effect in November and could impact 350,000 customers. Some may face increases of up to 650%.
Congratulations to Warren Buffet, as Berkshire Hathaway joined the $1 trillion market cap club this week. The company has more than doubled in value over the past five years. There are now seven companies with a market cap above $1 trillion: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Berkshire.
The S&P 500 is +29% since the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
Philip Morris announced they are investing $232 million to expand ZYN production at their Kentucky facility.
Quote of the Week:
“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” – John Templeton
Enjoy your weekend!
