8.9.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

 KC Wheat Sep24 down 6 at $5.54

Corn Sep24 down 10 at $3.77

Beans Sep24 down 29 at $9.89

Hogs Oct24 down 2.60 at $73.975

Fats Oct24 down 0.925 at $181.15

Feeders Sep24 down 6.80 at $239.775

Corn Dec24 down 8 at $3.95

Beans Nov24 down 25 at $10.02

Market Recap:

Grain and cattle prices followed the stock market to sharp losses early this week on recession fears and while the stock market was able to stabilize and start to rebound grain prices have continued to move lower.  The August USDA report is ahead on Monday at 11am and will likely cause a big move in prices either direction depending on what it says. This is the first report that we usually see the USDA make yield adjustments and adding to the volatility will be they are planning to incorporate the FSA acreage data that they have.  Given that crop condition ratings remain stable even with a few weeks of warm/dry weather (corn rated 67% good/excellent Monday vs 57% last year and soybeans rated 68% good/excellent vs 54% last year) traders are looking for a possible yield increase of 1-2 bushels on both corn and soybeans.  Seasonally prices trend lower into fall as we near harvest and weather forecasts today show rain chances for most of the Midwest with cooler temps the next 10 days which would support higher yield estimates if correct.  Funds remain heavily short but have not pushed their positions above the previous highs from a few weeks ago. Export sales this week remain steady from recent weeks with 19 Mil bu of old corn and 9.8 mil bu of new crop corn sold, 12 mil bu of old soybeans and 36.2 mil bu of new crop soybeans, and 10.1 mil bu of wheat.  New crop beans have seen some increase in demand the last couple weeks which might be a positive sign that the lower prices are helping gain world business, but we have a long way to go with total sales at just 166 million vs 338 million last year.  That is the second lowest sales amount in the last 18 years to start August.

Weather:

We made it past the heat with minimal effect to the crops it appears and the cooler temps and rain in the forecast have everyone hopeful that we’ll have a good finish to the growing season. Beans especially will need the rain and we have about 3 more weeks of weather influencing prices before it’s importance fades for the US crops and yield data and South America weather will come back into focus for their next growing season.  

Economy:

The news this week was a violent market crash beginning Friday afternoon associated with the “Japanese yen carry trade” where investors borrow money from Japan at extremely low rates and invest in American dollars. Following one of the worst trading days in recent memory, the market has since rebounded. The S&P 500 rallied 2.3% Tuesday, its best day since November 2022. The S&P 500 continues to be up 18% over the last 12 months and up 12% since January 1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4% since January 1 and up 12% year over year. Everyone calm down.

In other news:

If you had invested $10,000 in 2014 and looked back at today’s results:

Disney: $10,000

Nvidia: $28,000,000

Credit card debt is at all time highs. Americans owe $1.14 trillion, which is +48% since Covid. In the second quarter, delinquencies hit a decade high with almost 11% of accounts 90+ days overdue. This while the average credit card charges over 20% interest.

Mortgage applications continue to falter as they are currently at a 15 year low. This as the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.47%, which is the lowest in more than a year.  

Warner Bros. Discovery posted a nearly $10 billion loss in Q2. The majority of this deficit is a $9.1 billion write down of their cable channels CNN, TNT, and TBS as cord cutting is still having a dramatic effect on traditional media platforms. Over 626 million people now pay to use Spotify, up 14% compared to last year. Podcasts, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube continue to take market share from television networks.

 Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Aroldis Champman has been a pitcher in Major League Baseball for 15 years. He threw a fastball 105.1 mph this week, a record.

Quote of the Week:

“There are two great days in a person’s life- the day we are born and the day we discover why.” – William Barclay

 Enjoy your weekend!