10.25.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Corn Dec24 up 11 at $4.15

Beans Nov24 up 18 at $9.88

KC Wheat Dec24 down 9 $5.72

Hogs Dec24 up 1.855 at $79.675

Fats Dec24 up 1.825 at $189.150

Feeders Oct24 up 2.6 at $249.625

Corn Dec25 up 6 at $4.41

Beans Nov25 up 12 at $10.33

KC Wheat July25 up 16 at $6.28

Market Recap:

Big Export sales in Corn and strong sales in Beans and Wheat.  This is the largest weekly sales in nearly 3.5 years for corn at 3.603MMT or 141.8 mil bu.  Market expectations were around 2.8 MMT.  Majority of sales were to Mexico as expected.  There are now total commitments of 924 mil bushels which is a 34% gain vs last year’s 690 mil bu.  We need to average roughly 28.8 mil bu per week for the remainder of the 24/25 marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.325 bil bu projection.  This is much easier than last years average of 33.5 mil per week.

Beans exports of 2.152 MMT or 79.1 mil bu were on the upper end of expectations for the week and the best of the marketing year.  Total commitment projections are now up over 8% from last year.  Wheat sales at 533k MT (19.6 mil bu) were also at the upper end of expectations and similar to beans pushing total commitments up 16.7%.

COT reports say managed money buy in more of their short positions on corn and cattle.  Beans and Wheat saw them increase their short positions.  These trades by MM along with traditional traders seeing Corn and Bean spreads both collapsing over the week erased carry in the market as traders were buying front month contracts at a larger pace vs deferred. (Bull spreading) This can be indicative of the export sales.

Today’s sell off was likely profit taking for the weekend; however it is important to note Brazillian bean and corn planting saw huge advances this week as both come back to average paces.

 Weather:

Staying on topic with Brazil – Rainfill continues in Mato Grosso area and soil moisture improves.  It does look like 15 day forecast have dryness returning to Argentina and parts of Brazil.

We are entering the home stretch for US harvest progress with this weekend and next week wrapping up most of the corn and bean harvests.  Weather looks to continue to favor that progression with dryness persisting in the next 5 days.  However, wetter weather could take hold in the Eastern Cornbelt along with Iowa and Missouri.

Cattle on Feed:

It’s also interesting to note the headline of E-Coli outbreak in onions in McDonalds.  Many do not think this will end up having an effect on boxed beef.  Read the headline below from Morning Brew:

 Fallout from McDonald’s E. coli outbreak continues. Burger King and Yum Brands-owned restaurants, including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, have taken onions out of the kitchen at some locations after McDonald’s identified the ingredient as a potential culprit. At least 49 people have fallen ill and one person died across 10 states, in most cases after eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. Those burgers are off the McD’s menu in large swaths of the country, while its onion supplier, Taylor Farms, has issued a recall. The McDonald’s-linked illnesses are caused by a particularly dangerous E. Coli strain that can lead to kidney injury.—SK

Economy:

 Paul Tudor Jones was recently on the Squawk Box this week and spoke frankly on the long term stake of commodities.  Below is a link to the interview.  He notes with the situation on the current economic state is to “inflate our way” out of the current conditions by lowering interest rates right below inflation rate and growth right above inflation.  This essentially puts a small tax on the consumer.  This will help stabilize Debt to GDP.  Fed Chairman Powell is looking for 2.5% inflation over next few years; trying to encourage supply side solutions.

 Paul Tudor Jones: 'All Roads Lead to Inflation;' He's Long Bitcoin and Gold

 Sliver and Gold recently made all time highs over the last week:

Quote of the Week:

“I know in my heart that man is good, that what is right will always eventually triumph, and there is purpose and worth to each and every life.”
― Ronald Reagan

Something that probably means nothing:

Wonder Bread was created in Indianapolis in 1921 at the Taggart Baking Company. The owner of Taggart went to the first race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which was actually a hot air balloon race, and the view and “wonder” of the experience inspired the brand’s name and colorful circle design on its packaging.

However, it’s noted that the true home of “sliced” bread is the one and only Chillicothe, MO.  On July 7, 1928, Frank Bench and Otto Rohwedder brough the first bread slicing machine to town and made bags of sliced bread loaves available in grocery stores.