11.15.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Corn Dec24 down 7c at $4.24

Beans Jan24 down 32c at $9.98

KC Wheat Dec24 down 23.5c $5.40

Hogs Dec24 down 1.100 at $79.500

Fats Dec24 down 0.75 at $182.950

Feeders Jan25 up 5.800 at $247.225

Corn Dec25 down 9c at 4.40

Beans Nov25 down 32c at $10.20

KC Wheat July25 down 26c at $5.69

Grains:

Corn, soybeans, wheat all drifted lower for most of the week before the turnaround midday Friday. Several factors can be attributed to this pressure: prospects of large South American crop, pending US/China trade conflicts, along with burdensome global supplies. This morning’s release of export sales showed corn sales last week at the bottom of the range of expectations at 51.8 million bushels vs last week’s 108.9 million in sales. Soybeans were in the middle of expectations but were a 5-week low at 57.2 million bushels. Wheat sales were routine coming in at 14 million for the week. Seasonally export sales start to decline as the US harvest finishes and prospects for a large South American crop have them taking more of the world business in the months ahead which has traders worried about our endings stocks increasing.

 The corn market finished the week strong with a bounce near the 50-day moving average (4.16) and back up to the 9-day moving average (4.25). US ethanol production was record high last week. Weekly output of 1.11mil barrels was best of any week on record. Ethanol stocks were pegged at 22.04mil barrels, which was up 5% vs the same week last year.

 Soybean bulls are fighting the good fight into the weekend as the January contract finishes 11c off its daily lows. NOPA data released this morning showed a record crush of 199.96mil bushels. That was well above 196.84mil bushel estimate.

 The wheat complex got a Friday bounce following a week of losses. With wheat harvest in full swing in the southern hemisphere with Australia and Argentina both harvesting large crops and looking to add to their share of the world export market.  Russia has been lowering their FOB sales price over the last couple weeks in an effort to gain more market share which has added downward pressure to world prices.

Cattle:

Live cattle futures finished the trading week with December down a tick and other contracts up 20 to 80 cents. Cash trade got kicked off on Thursday, with trade at $185 across the country, down $1 to $3 from last week. Feeders led the charge on Friday and into the weekend, with gains of $3.10 to $4.00 as the cash market strengthens. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $2.02 at $251.04 on November 13. 

 This morning’s Export Sales report showed beef bookings of 14,153 MT, recovering from last week’s calendar year low. Shipments were tallied at 15,845 MT, a 3-week high.

 USDA wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Friday morning report. Choice boxes were down 39 cents to $303.41/cwt, with Select 13 cents higher @ $276.79. The Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $26.62. USDA estimated Thursday federally inspected cattle slaughter at 125,000 head, with the weekly total at 483,000 head. That was 11,000 head below the previous week and down 15,488 head from the same week last year.

 RJO comments are attached on the current chart analysis of Live Cattle for perspective of the recent move and the range for the past year. Funds have added considerable length in the last few months and may be preparing to move the other way as prices have stalled again near the top of the price range.

Weather:

South American weather continues to be favorable for great production out of Brazil and Argentina. December weather is crucial for determining yield but so far the region is off to a good start. Plentiful rain is expected over the next week or two. Benign temperatures are also in the forecast.

Although still on the dry side, the central plains has experienced a damp November. Below is the latest drought monitor showing areas of soil moisture increases. Rain along the river delivery system should help with barge traffic through the end of the year, also.

Economy:

Moderna stock is back to April 2020 levels, down 73% since its peak after the emergency covid-19 vaccine approval in December 2020. The S&P 500 is up 69% over the same period.

The S&P 500 has had one of the best years (so far) in modern times. Through the first 218 trading days of 2024, the index is up 25.8%, placing it as the 11th best year since 1928.

Bitcoin hit $93,000 this week. This is 93x higher than it was 11 years ago.

Dogecoin (up 128% since the election) has a market cap of $61 billion, which is higher than 331 companies in the S&P.

Over the last 10 years, US Federal Government Tax Revenue has increased 60% while Government spending has increased 93%.

Something that probably means nothing:

On Tuesday of this week, one week after the election, CNN and MSNBC drew their lowest 25-54 demographic ratings in nearly 25 years.

CNN lowest since July 27, 2000

MSNBC lowest since August 7, 2021

Quote of the Week:

“If you put the government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there’d be a shortage of sand.” – Milton Friedman

Have a great weekend!