11.29.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

March25 Corn down 2c at $4.33

Jan25 Beans up 7c at $9.90

March25 KC Wheat down 23c at 5.42

Feb25 Hogs up .650 at $86.325

Dec24 Fats up 1.200 at $187.975

Jan25 Feeders up 5.175 at $259.475

Dec25 Corn down 5c at $4.31

Nov25 Beans up 3c at $10.12

July25 KC Wheat down 22c at $5.57

Grains:

Corn: Early week tariff talk had the corn market headed lower across many contracts but finished Friday with a bang! Reports of President-elect Trump speaking with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum during the Thanksgiving break, which the call reportedly went well, she did mention there would be no potential tariff war.

The national average Cash Corn price from cmdtyView is down 4 cents at $3.9250 per bu.

 U.S. corn export sales, for the week ended 11/21/24, were 1.063 MMT (41.8 mil bu), at the lower end of market expectations of 800k-2.0 MMT, down from the previous week's 58.8 mil bu, well below last year's same-week sales of 75.9 mil bu (which were the 2023/24 marketing year high) and were the lowest in nine weeks. Total commitments of 1.278 billion bushels slipped to a 33% gain to last year's 963 million after being up 48% year-over-year three weeks prior. In order to reach the USDA's 2.325 billion bushel export projection, RJO estimates corn sales will need to average roughly 23.6 mil bu/week from this point forward vs last year's 30.8 million/week average sales during Dec-Aug. This week's sales included 410k tonnes to Mexico, bringing their total commitments to 13.3 MMT vs 12.0 MMT bought by this time last year, and 134k tonnes to South Korea, while sales to unknown were 156k tonnes.

EIA data from Wednesday morning showed the record ethanol production number get bigger, up 6,000 barrels per day from the prior record and 9,000 bpd from last week at 1.119 million bpd. That did increase the stockpile of ethanol by 306,000 barrels to 22.869 million barrels. Refiner inputs backed off 2,000 barrels to 890,000 bpd, with exports up 14,000 bpd to 158,000 barrels per day.

AgroConsult estimates the Brazilian corn crop at 132.7 MT for 2024/25, with the second crop at 107.3 MMT of that total. CONAB estimates the country’s 2024/25 ethanol production at 36.08 billion liters, between corn and sugarcane feedstocks, up 0.67 billion liters from the previous estimate. Much of that increase was from sugarcane, up 0.38 billion liters at 28.85.

March Corn since May 15, 2024:

Soybeans: Soybeans posted firm to 5c higher trade on Wednesday ahead of the day off on Thursday. They opened with a jolt of electricity jumping up 7-10c on news of a large flash sale to unknown of 840,000 metric tons (30.8mil bu) of soybeans for 2024/2025 marketing year, and finished the trading week up 2c on the January contract.

CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price at $9.3825 per bu.

U.S. soybean sales were a marketing year high at 2.491 MMT (91.5 mil bu), beating market expectations of 1.5-2.4 MMT while rising sharply from the previous week's 60.9 mil bu and last year's same-week sales of 69.6 mil bu. Total commitments of 1.245 billion bushels are now up nearly 10% from last year's 1.135 billion vs the USDA's export projection of 1.825 bil bu reflecting an expected 7.7% increase from last year. In order to reach the USDA's target, RJO estimates soybean sales will need to average roughly 13.7 mil bu/week from this point forward vs last year's 13.4 million/week average during Dec-Aug. This week's sales included 786k tonnes to China, bringing their total purchases to far to 15.8 MMT vs 17.0 MMT at this time last year, 340k tonnes to Mexico and 202k to Germany, while sales to unknown were 602k tonnes. Total sales to the EU now stand at 2.5 MMT vs 1.8 MMT at this time last year.

USDA’s monthly crush report will be released on Monday, with the trade looking for crush 210.9 mbu of soybeans during October. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.52 billion lbs.

Brazilian soybean crop estimates from AgroConsult show 2024/25 production seen at 172.2 MMT, which is up 10.2% from the year prior.

January Soybeans since May 15, 2024:

Livestock:

Are you having turkey for Thanksgiving or Christmas this year? It has been a tough couple years for turkey producers. In 2002, turkey consumption per capita was nearly six pounds per person. This year it is estimated to only be about four pounds per person. This is a -33% trend over the last 20 or so years. As you can see from the graph below, late year turkey prices the last two years has been dramatically lower than the late year average from 2018-2022.

Cattle: Live cattle futures were mixed into the close Friday. Cash trade kicked off on Wednesday with $188-190 sales reported across the country. Feeder cattle are up $0.700 to $1.325 across contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 23 cents at $255.94 on November 26.

Export Sales data showed 4,846 MT of 2024 beef sold in the week that ended on November 21, a calendar year low. Another 5,042 MT was sold for 2025 shipment. Shipments totaled 14,536 MT, a 3-week high. The largest destination was South Korea at 4,900 MT, with Japan buying 3,300 MT.

USDA wholesale Boxed Beef prices were back mixed in the Friday AM report. Choice boxes were down 4 cents to $311.22 /cwt, with Select $1.60 higher lower @ $275.90. The Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $35.32. USDA estimated the Wednesday federally inspected cattle slaughter at 124,000 head, with the weekly total at 370,000 head. That is 1,000 head below the previous week and down 6,872 head from the same week last year.

Hogs: Lean hog futures closed as much as $1.50 lower in the nearbys and $0.30 - $0.80c lower in the deferreds.  The national average base hog negotiated price was at $83.44 in the Friday morning report, down $3.92 from the day prior. The CME Lean Hog Index was reported at $85.51 on November 26, down another 39 cents from the previous day.

Pork export sales totaled 17,222 MT for 2024 in the week of 11/21, with 17,501 MT for 2025. Mexico was the largest buyer for the current year at 8,300 MT, with South Korea buying 9,800 MT for 2025. Shipments were tallied at 28,119 MT, a 7-week low. Mexico was the destination of 10,300, with 4,100 MT to Japan.

Weather:

South American weather continues to be nearly ideal as multiple rain systems are projected to move across the main growing regions the next 7-10 days.

Economy:

The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates 0.75% over the last few months with a chance they may drop rates further at their December meeting in a few weeks. Rates are now 4.5-4.75%. Jerome Powell sighted consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 2.33% is getting closer to the FED’s target of 2%. He is confident it is close to time to begin cutting rates back to what he considers long-term equilibrium.

The issue? Bond investors are voting with their dollars and are selling long-term bonds, causing yields to go higher. They have risen from 3.8% to trading around the 4.3-4.5% range lately. This means investors doubt the Fed has totally gotten inflation under control and don’t want to hold long-term bonds that pay interest that sinks in value as inflation expands or remains too high.

Total unsold new homes for sale is at its highest level since December 2007.

82% of Americans say it’s a bad time to buy a house, which is the most pessimistic homebuyers have ever been.

The median U.S. home price is $435,000, an increase of 39% since 2020 according to the National Association of Realtors.

Problems afoot in Europe? German industrial production down nearly 20% from trendline over the last 30 years. German car brands (VW, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz have all reported dramatic drawdowns in profits in 2025.

Something that probably means nothing:

The University of Kentucky has been playing football since 1881. Last weekend’s game at the University of Texas was the farthest west they have ever played a football game.

Quote of the Week:

“Vegetables are a must on a diet. I suggest carrot cake, zucchini bread, and pumpkin pie.” – Jim Davis

Have a great Thanksgiving weekend!