12.27.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

March25 Corn up 7 at $4.53

Jan25 Beans up 6 at $9.81

March25 KC Wheat up 10 at 5.54

Feb25 Hogs down 1.775 at $84.175

Feb25 Fats up 2.35 at $190.875

Jan25 Feeders up 5.70 at $261.575

Dec25 Corn up 4 at $4.41

Nov25 Beans up 18 at $10.05

July25 KC Wheat up 11 at $5.71

Grains:

Corn continues to add to the rally this past week with March corn tacking on another 7c. Where are we at in terms of seasonality and where could the market trade from here? According to the March Corn Historical Pattern chart below, corn over the past 5 years has traded up the 45% retracement level of the preharvest range. The preharvest springtime high of March corn was ~$5.09 and the March corn low was ~$4.03 which at a 45% retracement level would mean ~48c rally off the low which is where we are trading at currently with March corn around $4.50. March corn had a productive close last week with trading and closing above the 200-day moving average. If the rally continues from here, the next point of chart resistance is sitting around $4.70 followed by ~$4.87. Support on March corn is sitting at the $4.36 (50 day moving average) and $4.30 (100 day moving average).

Corn sales this past week came in at 67.4 million bushels which was up from the previous week at 46.2 million bushels and last year’s same-week sales of 48.9 million bushels. Soybean sales this past week came in at 35.9 million bushels which is down from the previous week of 52.3 million bushels and right in line with a year ago sales of 31.2 million bushels. Wheat sales this past week came in at 22.5 million bushels which was at the top of expectations  and up from the previous week of 16.8 million bushels and above the last year’s same week sales of 10.2 million bushels. (Export information courtesy of Randy Mittelstaedt’s Morning Newsletter with RJO’Brien)

Weather:

Over the past 30 days, much of the Western corn belt has received 0-30% of average rainfall while the Eastern corn belt has received normal average amounts.

Brazil weather has been relatively quiet as they have been receiving adequate amounts of rain to aid growth. On the other hand, Argentina has been on the ‘drier’ side. Below is the forecast for the upcoming week.

Something that probably means nothing:

Farmers today produce 262% more food with 2% fewer inputs (such as seeds, labor, fertilizers) than they did in 1950.

Farming employs more than 24 million American workers (17% of the total workforce).

Raising beef cattle is the single largest segment of American agriculture. The United States produces more beef than any other country. About 34 million cows are slaughtered in the U.S. each year.

In 2007, just 187,816 of the 2.2 million farms in the United States accounted for 63% of sales of agricultural products, marking a trend toward the concentration in agricultural production.

Quote of the Week:

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. – Winston Churchill