2.14.25 Tredas Recap

Weekly Action:

March25 Corn up 11 at $4.97

March25 Beans down 11 at $10.37

March25 KC Wheat up 18 at $6.21

April25 Hogs up 0.50 at $92.575

April25 Fats down 2.275 at $194.550

March25 Feeders up 1.90 at $267.075

Dec25 Corn up 8 at $4.73

Nov25 Beans down 5 at $10.53

July25 KC Wheat up 22 at $6.42

We are halfway through the crop insurance pricing window.

So far:

Corn $4.70

Soybeans $10.57

*Markets are closed Monday for President’s Day. They will open Monday evening.

Grains:

Corn and wheat rallied to finish the week. March corn is testing its 8-month high on the heels of a two-month low in the US dollar. A drier shift in the Argentine forecast along with a 9% drop in Argentine crop conditions from last week has also been supportive. The February WASDE this week was mostly a non-event but global corn stocks-to-use was reported to be 7.8% (when excluding China). This is the tightest stocks/use since 1996.

The Commitment of Traders report showed funds were big sellers of corn and soybeans this week. Funds sold almost half their soybean length but are still long a respectful 330,000 contracts of corn. The spot corn/soybean ratio is 2.09:1; the lowest in five years.

All indications are the U.S. farmer will lean heavily corn at planting time unless the markets dramatically change. Until the March 30 planting intentions, the USDA is using the 90.6 million acres paired with a 179.3 bpa yield for the upcoming year.  Keep in mind just two years ago we planted 94.6 million acres of corn.

Weather:

Frigid temperatures are expected to continue for the Plains. The extended forecast does offer better days ahead after we get through next week.

Chicken (wing) or the egg:

The price of eggs has been a hot topic for several months, both politically and practically at the grocery store. Egg consumption per capita has increased over 40 eggs/year since 2016, meaning Americans now consume an average of 300 eggs each year. Basically, we need one hen for every person in the U.S. This increase in demand has been affected by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (bird flu), as over 100 million table-egg-laying hens have been affected. This represents about 8% of the egg-laying-hen population. More egg demand with fewer hens has resulted in a 250% price increase since 2019.

Depending on where you live could also dramatically impact the price of eggs. Nine states have laws requiring eggs sold in their state must be from cage-free hens. California, with a population of 39 million people is one of these states. This past fall, bird flu affected 9 million hens in California (remember, we need one hen for every person). The population of the nine states with laws requiring cage-free eggs have a population of 70 million people, which is about 50% more than the current cage-free population in the U.S.

Conversely, chicken wing prices have dramatically decreased since prices reached over $4.00/pound in early 2022 compared to $2.50/pound pre-covid. Since the 2022 highs, prices have generally declined. Using 2024 dollars (counting inflation) the 2022 prices equal about $4.50/pound. With today’s buying power, wings are back to 2018 type levels.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

A survey from Hult International Business School reported 37% of employers would rather hire Artificial Intelligence (AI) than a recent graduate.

Quote of the Week:

“If I have learned anything, it is to keep my wife happy by sending her lavish gifts. Other men can learn from my success and send their wives and girlfriends fresh flowers for birthdays, anniversaries, and of course, Valentine’s Day.” -Don Rickles

Fun fact: Necco produces more than 8 billion Conversation Heart candies every year. These candies which have become synonymous with Valentine’s Day have been around nearly 150 years and were originally medical lozenges to treat sore throats.