2.21.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

March25 Corn down 7c at $4.90

March25 Beans up 2c at $10.39

March25 KC Wheat down 13c at $6.08

April25 Hogs down 4.900 at $87.675

April25 Fats down .650 at $193.900

March25 Feeders up .775 at $267.850

Dec25 Corn up 2c at $4.75

Nov25 Beans up 6c at $10.59

July25 KC Wheat down 8c at $6.34

We are 75% through the crop insurance pricing window.

So far:

Corn $4.72

Soybeans $10.58

Grains:

After posting its best trade since October of 2023 on Tuesday, corn faltered into the back half of the week amid forecast changes down south, March Option expiration, and end of month putting us closer to renegotiations among tariffs. March corn fell through some technical support at the 9 dma (4.96) but ultimately closed right at the 20 dma (4.90) to close Friday’s session. Those two moving averages have acted as support ultimately bouncing corn higher the 6 times we’ve tested them since 12/6/24. US export sales remain a driving factor. Sales for the current marketing year are running 28% above last year's pace, while USDA has projected a year-over-year increase of only 7%. Continued upside momentum (if we can hold 20 dma to start out next week) and tight US and world balance sheets have kept the larger speculator interested.

Export Sales data from this morning showed 1.454 MMT of corn sold in the week that ended on 2/13 (near the top end of estimates 0.9 to 1.6 MMT). That was down 11.8% from the week prior, but still 77.2% larger than the same week in 2024. Mexico was the main buyer of 546,800 MT, with 457,400 MT sold to Japan and 185,500 MT to Spain.

Soybeans followed corn’s lead on Friday, but spent most of the week trending higher after a bounce off our 100 dma (10.23) late last week. 480,278 MT of soybeans were sold during the week of 2/13, at the top end of the 100,000 and 500,000 MT estimates. That was above the previous week (+158.9%) and well above the same week last year. China was the buyer of 101,200 MT, with 75,700 MT sold to Egypt and 73,800 MT to Mexico. Sales for new crop were just 19,342 MT, split between Mexico and Japan.

Cattle:

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on February 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below February 1, 2024. Placements n feedlots during January totaled 1.82 million head, 2% above 2024. Net placements were 1.76 million head. Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.87 million head, 1 percent above 2024.

Weather:

Midday GFS showing wetter pattern in Argentina starting early next week, with little/no rain to fall over the weekend there. Temps will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Normal rainfall is expected across Northern Brazil as harvest moves along, but more rainfall is expected to return in their 2-week forecast.  Southern Brazil holds a drier pattern into the weekend and upcoming forecasts.

USDA released weekly drought monitor data yesterday. After a bone chilling week across the Corn Belt, appears warmer temps are on the horizon. Most areas received some form of precipitation over the last week, with drought conditions improving across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

In another sign of college football's transformation, Texas and USC have joined Nebraska in canceling their spring games. Texas head coached said he hoped to have an NFL-style spring featuring OTAs -- or organized team activities, as the pros call them -- with scrimmages. "The development that's needed for these guys to get ready for the fall is a little bit different than it used to be," Sarkisian said. "I just don't know if rolling the ball out and playing the game, when we only get 15 practices, is the best for us to maximize the opportunities that we get." Matt Rhule at Nebraska said his biggest concern was effectively playing a showcase game for other schools to recruit his roster. "I hate to say it like this, but it's really because last year, we were one of the more televised spring games, and I dealt with a lot of people offering our players a lot of opportunities after that," Rhule said. "The word 'tampering' doesn't exist anymore, it's just absolute free, open, common market. And so, I don't necessarily want to open up to the outside world. I don't want these guys all being able to watch our guys and say, 'Wow, he looks like a pretty good player. Let's go get him.'" Florida State canceled its spring game this year because of ongoing stadium renovations, but coach Mike Norvell said he believes the trend of no longer playing spring games will continue. "As much as anything, teams can change so much," Norvell said. "I would assume that you're going to see less and less spring games just because of that part of it. You go play a spring game and put whatever information you want out there, and that's going to help somebody that you're playing against. Even if it's just seeing the look of personnel. You can only get 15 days, I don't want to spend a day that's not as productive."

Quote of the Week:

“Either you run the day, or the day runs you.”