3.21.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May25 Corn up 5.75c at $4.64

May25 Beans down 6.25c at $10.10

June25 Hogs down 1.175 at $97.475

June Fats up 3.425 at $202.775

May Feeders up 2.450 at $285.100

Dec25 Corn unch at $4.51

Nov25 Beans down 10.25c at $10.08

July25 KC Wheat up 4.75c at $6.03

ECAP 2025:

FSA began sending pre-filled applications to producers who submitted 2024 acreage reports to FSA for eligible commodities after the signup period opened on March 19. However, producers do not have to wait for the application to apply – they can apply online or contact their local FSA office to request an application.

https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/emergency-commodity-assistance-program

The deadline to submit ECAP applications to FSA is Aug. 15, 2025. Producers who have not previously reported 2024 crop year acreage or prevent plant crops must also submit an acreage report by the deadline.

Grains:

March choppiness has been the theme over last couple of weeks.

May corn opened the month at 4.6975 and finished today at 4.6425. Peak was 4.7750 for a quick day with the depths being at 4.4250 on the 4th day of the month. May corn failed early to push back through it’s 20dma and then sold lower, giving back most of yesterday’s gains off rumors of Brazil being in the market for US corn. Bigger support lies at 200dma (4.55) and nearby resistance at 50dma (4.86). New crop Dec25 has traded a narrow 16.25c range. Highs of 4.575 and lows at 4.4150.

Export Sales data from Thursday morning showed 1.497 MMT in bookings. That takes total export sale commitments for the 2024/25 crop to 52.031 MMT, which is 25% larger than the same period last year. That is also 84% of the USDA export projection, ahead of the 5-year average sales pace by 1%.

May beans opened the month at 10.26 and closed out the day at 10.10, with Nov25 beans being in a similar place.

USDA’s Export Sales report showed just 352,580 MT in 2024/25 soybean sales during the week of March 13. Soybean export commitments to date are 45.422 MMT, which is 13% above the same period last year. That is also 91% of USDA’s soybean export forecast, compared to the 5-year average sales pace of 92% of that projection by now.

Livestock:

United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024.

Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.49 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 295,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 275,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 415,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 389,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 50,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.63 million head, 9 percent below 2024.

Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during February, 7 percent above 2024.

Weather:

1-5 Day wetter in southern Argentina; drier in central Brazil.

NOAA April forecast maps as we near planting season. Eastern Corn Belt appears wet while the south and west remain dry.

Economy:

The interest-rate-setting committee kept the borrowing rate unchanged between 4.25 - 4.5%. This was the expected outcome as the Fed assessed the potential impacts of a slowing labor market and economy against current and forthcoming trade disputes. In the post-meeting statement, the FOMC says there is an increased level of risk surrounding the current economic outlook. This resulted in a downgrade in economic growth to 1.7% annually with inflation going up slightly from the previous estimate at a 2.8% annual increase in prices. Despite the estimated inflation increase, the Fed is going to further scale back its quantitative easing policy. 

It is becoming harder for Americans to raise funds in case of an emergency, according to a recent survey from the New York Federal Reserve. The bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for February found that the average likelihood of Americans being able to come up with $2,000 within a month if an unexpected need arose hit 62.7%. That’s the lowest level since the survey began tracking the data point in October 2015.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

According to Bureau of Labor data obtained by Action Network, the average worker watching March Madness costs the U.S. economy an estimated $1,801.30. Factoring in the millions upon millions of workers in America, and the sheer number of college basketball fans, that number adds up to the estimated $20 billion lost in productivity.

The first round of the men’s tournament holds games in the afternoon on Thursdays and Fridays, creating a distraction for fans trying to watch the games unfold. The survey uncovered that 40% of the participants admitted to calling in sick to watch a March Madness game.

Quote of the Week:

“The will to succeed is important, but what’s more important is the will to prepare.” - Bobby Knight