4.18.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May25 Corn down 7 at $4.825

May25 Beans down 8 at $10.3575

May25 KC Wheat down 11.5 at $5.5625

May25 Hogs up $4.025 to $90.425

May25 Fats up $7.425 to $204.025

April25 Feeders up $8.1 to $286.9

Dec25 Corn up 3.25 to $4.6625

Nov25 Beans up 6.25 to $10.3175

July25 KC Wheat down 14.25 at $5.69

REMINDER: Markets are closed Friday, April 18th for Good Friday.

Grains:

Grains were relatively quiet this week following last week’s tariff talk/excitement. However, we did see changes within the spreads as first notice approaches for May25 contracts. The May25-Jul25 carry has widened from last week’s lows of 4.5cts in corn and 6.25cts in soybeans to 8cts & 11.25cts, respectively. Similarly, we’ve seen the new crop markets become less inverted to May25, as new crop contracts (Dec25/Nov25) finish higher on the week with May25 slightly lower.

As we kick off the 2025 planting season, eyes will shift to the weekly USDA Crop Progress Reports that are released each Monday afternoon. This week’s report showed modest increases with the major 18 states sitting at 4% planted versus a five-year average of 5%. In 2024, the major 18 states were 6% planted at this time and 27% planted by the end of April. Our planting progress could carry more weight this year considering the massive corn acreage number estimated by USDA a few weeks ago. Below is a map of which states saw the largest % increase in projected corn acres YOY. With cotton prices significantly lower than they were a year ago, the Southern US is projected to ramp up corn acres. With rains forecasted for many of these areas, eyes will be on USDA Crop Progress Reports in coming weeks.

Livestock:

Cattle were heavily impacted by tariff announcements in recent weeks, falling to prices we haven’t seen since early March. However, they made a roaring comeback this week, offsetting most of the losses incurred the previous two weeks. USDA released a Cattle on Feed Report Thursday, showing a higher-than-expected placements value, with on-feed & marketings more in line with estimates.

Weather:

7-day forecasts lean warmer with rain in the eastern Midwest & Mid-South. As we work into 7-14 day forecasts, we see good chances of rain in the West which would be very welcomed. Temps appear above average as well. Overall, the coming weather should provide a good start to 2025 planting season if rain materializes.

Economy:

The stock market was relatively neutral following two turbulent weeks of trading. The S&P 500 Index has clawed its way back to 5,282.70, allowing investors to recoup some of the losses they may have experienced in the previous 10 sessions. This weeks close leaves us down about 3% from Monday’s open.

In terms of tariffs, it appears that negotiation talks with many countries are going well. There have been no meaningful/news-worthy tariff enhancements from the current administration. However, Chinese politicians and leaders have stated that the U.S. services sector may be hit by their next round of tariffs, if the “meaningless numbers game” doesn’t stop. The U.S. reached a record of $55 billion in services “exported” to China in 2024, over a 10x increase over the last two decades, and widening the service deficit to $32B. Along with these services, Beijing has threatened they will be more selective with what US films are allowed to be shown in China, as well as restricting travel and study-abroad programs to the U.S.

Since 2000, China has taken over the world stage in place of the U.S. as the world’s largest trade partner. Below is a chart comparing 2000 to 2024, which displays an overwhelming takeover.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The Easter Bunny’s origin dates back centuries, beginning in pre-Christian Germany. Here, the hare was said to be a symbol of the Pagan Goddess of Spring and fertility. Over time, Pagan traditions were blended with Christian holidays, which saw the Easter Bunny leave a nest of colorful eggs for children on Easter Sunday.

Quote of the Week:
“A goal without a plan is just a wish” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Have a safe & happy Easter weekend!