4.11.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
May25 Corn at $4.9025 up 30 cents
May25 Beans at $10.4275 up 65 ¾ cents
May25 KC Wheat at $5.68 up 10 ½ cents
May25 Hogs at $86.575 up $1.45
April25 Fats at $202.475 down 15 cents
April25 Feeders at $285.175 up $5.75
Dec25 Corn at $4.635 up 16 ¾ cents
Nov25 Beans at $10.255 up 41 ¼ cents
July25 KC Wheat at $5.8325 up 13 ¼ cents
Grains:
This week’s grain action was modest in comparison to the cattle and stock markets. Nonetheless it didn’t lack news. The trade war took a step forward as Trump increased tariffs on China to 145% and China retaliated again raising tariffs to 125%. All row crop commodities posted gains to finish the week with help from a friendly USDA report showing a drop in both corn and soybean ending stocks solidifying a disconnect between old and new crop values.
Corn ending stocks below 1.5 billion allows for little to no yield threats this growing season. It also presents a large potential bullish old crop scenario if any threats occur. The key here is even with a below trendline yield, 95 million acres of incoming corn presents a bearish narrative long term. $4.80 December futures would be a rally back to the 10-month highs.
Soybeans have now erased the entire trade war selloff and old crop May sits 60 cents off it’s April low. Basis has firmed on the rally giving light to better domestic demand.
Weather:
The noon update offers a dry week of weather across the Plains and most of the Midwest. Showers form for the E Midwest late next week ahead of a new cold front with rainfall totals of .25-1.00”. Much warms temps return following April 20th with higher more regularly in the 60s/70s/80s. The outlook for spring row crop seeding is improving.
Economy:
Stocks were an absolute rollercoaster this week as Trade wars/talks and Trump tweets were the highlight of reactions. Wednesday, Trump released a message stating a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs outside of China and the Dow rallied nearly 4,200 points from the low. Though it gave back half of that on Thursday, things have stabilized.
Below shows our trade deficits with foreign countries. It’s clear that something has to change as the US debt grows daily and the amount of “goods” imported is currently over 1.1 trillion dollars.
Interesting read on the history of tariffs:
Something that means nothing:
During Masters week, August Regional Airport sees a surge in private Jet Traffic, with upwards of 1,500-1,600 aircraft expected to arrive/depart. The airport typically sees 62 aircraft take off and land per day but is upwards of 300 per day during master’s week. In addition to increased traffic, landing fees also jump from $125 to $3,000. The airport will also close one of its two runways to accommodate the large number of private jets, which are then parked on the other runway and surrounding areas.
Quote of the Week:
"It always seems impossible until it's done." - Nelson Mandela
This reminds us the even the seemingly impossible challenges can be overcome with persistence and belief in yourself.
