4.4.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May25 Corn up 7.5 to $4.605

May25 Beans down 45 to $9.7725

May25 Hogs down 3.175 to $88.05

June25 Live cattle down 6.65 at $198.2

May25 Feeder cattle down 10.1 at $274.875

Dec25 Corn up 3.5 to $4.46

Nov25 Beans down 43.75 to $9.845

July25 KC Wheat up 4.25 to $5.705

Current 25 Crop soybean/corn ratio = 2.207

Grains:

This week brought plenty of market-moving news. Monday brought the USDA prospective planting report, showing that farmers are planting 95.326M acres of corn and 83.495M acres of soybeans. Average trade guesses were 94.361M of corn and 83.762M acres of soybeans. The realized numbers reflect a drop in soybean acres from 2024, but a 4.8M acre jump for corn. The market was relatively neutral after this report, suggesting a large corn acre number had already been priced in. Subsequently, the focus shifted to Trump’s “Liberation Day”.

During Trump’s Wednesday evening address, tariffs were announced on over 20 countries, showing “discounted” or equal tariffs on trade partners, compared to what they have imposed on the US. New-crop corn has remained fairly flat, with some large moves day-to-day and futures bouncing off a $4.3975 morning low. Soybeans have taken a hit, dropping below the $10.00 mark and bouncing off a $9.78 morning low.

Between Monday’s USDA report and Wednesday’s tariff announcements, markets experienced turbulent volatility. Volatility heavily impacts the price of options, with higher vol. making options more expensive and vice versa. Seasonally, grain market volatility ticks up as we approach the summer timeframe. The following charts portray market volatility on a year-over-year basis.

Corn: The spike in early 2022 is due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You’ll see this spike again in the SRW graph.

Soybeans: The uptick in 2018, as well as 2025, both line-up with the timeline of tariff announcements on large soybean buyers (China).

SRW Wheat: Large jump in volatility for 2022 due to Russian invasion of Ukraine

Weather:

The 10-day forecast shows little precipitation for Nebraska/western Iowa, with adequate to excessive rain for the eastern corn belt, and heavy rains for the deep south.

Drought continues to persist across most of the US, particularly in the Central Plains and Southwest regions of the country.

Economy:

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report this morning, showing that US employment grew by 228,000 jobs this month, while still showing a small rise in unemployment to 4.2%. According to the BLS, this number has moved between 4.0%-4.2% since May of 2024.

The stock market had a rough week following “Liberation Day.” Stocks have seen significant drops, and investors are unsure of where the market may be heading. Since Wednesday, the S&P 500 has dropped by over 300 points, and the DJIA is down by over 1,000 points.

Notably absent from the reciprocal tariffs list were Canada and Mexico. Imports from these countries were previously targeted by the administration, levying a 25% universal tax on all products not protected by NAFTA. As it turns out, Mexico’s president Steinbaum said she is willing to play ball and figure out a way to eliminate these tariffs, as Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge manufacturer Stellantis has already halted production in Mexico and Canada in the shadow of these tariffs. Canada has taken the opposite approach, matching Trump’s 25% tariffs on the auto industry. Time will tell to see how this plays out for the Canadian auto industry, as well as US manufacturing.  

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships continue this weekend, with the Final Four tipping off Saturday evening. 2025 marks the first time that all four number one seeds coming into the tournament have reached the Final Four since 2008. 2008 was the only other year this feat was accomplished.

Quote of the Week:

"There are two pains in life. The pain of discipline and the pain of regret.” -Nick Saban

Have a great weekend!