6.21.24 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
KC Wheat Jul24 down 46 at $5.81
Corn Jul24 down 14 at $4.3525
Beans Jul24 down 18 at $11.60
Corn Dec24 down 16 at $4.5325
Beans Nov24 down 28 at $11.21
Hogs Jul24 down 2.00 at $91.90
Fats Jun24 up .78 at $187.75
Feeders Aug24 up 3.22 at $258.025
Corn seasonal average (94% through): $4.71
Soybean seasonal average (53% through): $11.78
Market Recap:
Markets continue to trade the ‘rain makes grain’ headline. All grains are working towards deeper weakness with wheat as the front runner this week being down 46 cents. On the technical side of things, corn, soybeans, and wheat are all oversold and at a point of weakness. This week, we put in new lows on the November soybean contract at 11.1325. Cash basis is still strong. One thing to be aware of is historically a 2+ billion carryout is typically not a bullish basis indication. Wheat harvest has arrived to Nebraska with rumors of lower protein levels compared to recent years. Friday is the USDA’s Planted Acreage Report and quarterly stocks report. Historically can create volatility.
June Cattle on Feed Recap:
Weather:
Parts of South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin are under flood watches/warnings today with more precipitation headed their way. Meanwhile, a heat advisory is in effect for much of the eastern Corn Belt along with a dry forecast over the next 5 days. Both Euro & GFS models introduce eastern Corn Belt rain during the 5-10 day period. The extended GFS offers substantial rainfall for the region. To the contrary, the government released its "official" 30-day forecast yesterday. The forecast favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall for most of the US Corn Belt.
Economy:
The estimate for the 2024 federal budget has increased by $400 billion. The Congressional Budget Office is projecting the deficit will reach $1.9 trillion, the third largest annual deficit in American history. Some key contributors to the increased spending include military aid to Ukraine and Israel, paying off student loan debt, and increased Medicaid spending. The nation's publicly held debt is expected to rise to 122% of GDP by the end of 2034, the highest level on record. The cost of President Biden's open southern border policy, which has increased state and local spending, is not included in the CBO report.
Quote of the Week:
“You have to believe in your process. You have to believe in the things that you are doing to help the team win” - Tom Brady
