8.23.24 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

 KC Wheat Sep24 down 19 at $5.21

Corn Sep24 down 3 at $3.68

Beans Sep24 up 14 at $9.53

Hogs Oct24 up 5.50 at $80.575

Fats Oct24 down 2.725 at $175.575

Feeders Sep24 down 1.075 at $238.425

Corn Dec24 down 1 at $3.91

Beans Nov24 up 16 at $9.73

Market Recap:

The highlight of row crop news this week was the Pro Farmer Tour. Below are the results. The quick summary: we have a crop on the way. Historically speaking, the Tour’s estimates can be expected to be within 2 BPA of the September WASDE, though almost 70% of the time the Tour’s projections are below USDA’s.

Corn:

The Tour forecasted a 181.1 bpa for corn, which would lead to a 14.979 billion bushel crop nationally. The August WASDE had the crop at 183.1 bpa and total production of 15.147 billion bushels.

Soybeans:

The Tour pegged soybeans at 54.9 bpa with total production at 4.74 billion bushels. The August WASDE had yield at 53.2 bpa and total production of 4.589 billion bushels.

Weather:

Nearby forecasts are trending drier and warmer for most of the Central US as we enter a pivotal time for soybean seed size development.

Economy:

FED chairman Jerome Powell strongly hinted the US economy may be due for interest rate cuts for the first time in four years. The market is predicting a 100% chance of a cut in September by 0.25% with a 33% chance of a 0.50% cut as the labor market is showing signs of stress. This week the Bureau of Labor revised jobs added from April 2023 to March 2024 lower by over 800,000 jobs, which is nearly a 30% correction from earlier reports. This means all of the “beats” released in previous reports are false. According to former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder, the job market can not cool too much more without a recession following. This has helped lead to the US Dollar being its lowest level so far in 2024.

According to NASS, the natinoal average value of farm real estate increased $200/acre this year. This represents an increase of 5% and brings the national average to $4,170/acre. This was the lowest percentage increase in the last three years but ahead of the long term average increase of 4%.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Vocational school enrollment was up 16% last year.

Quote of the Week:

“A champion is simply someone who did not give up when they wanted to.” – Coach Tom Landry

Enjoy your weekend!