Wheat Marketing Thoughts

First, this is a 5-year historical pattern for July futures. There have generally been two advantageous periods to market wheat pre-harvest. Those being Jan/Feb and April/May. My main takeaway:

In recent years, the “last gasp” for HRW pre-harvest marketing has occurred Late April/Mid-May.

Let’s look at previous years starting with 2021. Coming out of COVID.  The April/May high was May 7.

Here is 2022. The “Russia” year when the narrative was “the world is running out of wheat”. The high was May 17.

Here is 2023 (last year). The high was May 17.

Here is 2024 so far. No one knows where we will end up, but we are at levels we have not seen since early December and outside of SW Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandle growing conditions have been mostly favorable.