Tredas Recap 7.12.24

Weekly Action:

KC Wheat Sep24 down 31 at $5.69

Corn Sep24 down 7 at $4.04

Beans Sep24 down 70 at $10.58

Hogs Aug24 down 0.35 at $88.775

Fats Aug24 down 3.75 at $182.550

Feeders Aug24 down 2.50 at $258.750

Corn Dec24 down 8 at $4.16

Beans Nov24 down 68 at $10.64

Market Recap:

The July WASDE was published Friday. The main highlights below:

Corn:

The acreage increase from the June Planting Intentions report came through at 91.5 million acres. Yield was left unchanged at 181.0 bpa. As a result total production for the 24/25 year was raised 240 million bushels from the June WASDE. Feed use for new crop was increased 75 million bushels and exports increased 25 million bushels. Beginning stocks were lowered 145 million bushels (Increased Feed Use by 75 million and Exports by 75 million). The net result: USDA lowered projected carryout 5 million bushels with ending stocks of 2.097 billion bushels. World corn production from major exporters was lowered 0.4 MMT.

Reaction: December corn reached a new low of $4.03 this morning before the report. Dec corn closed up 5 cents at $4.16. Still down 3 cents on the week, but an encouraging sign nonetheless. $4.16 is about the 9-day moving average, which will be important to keep an eye on Sunday evening. Perhaps the market is exhausted with all the bearish information in the marketplace and is heading towards optimism. Perhaps the managed money shorts over 400k contracts (a record) will act like a lead balloon as it has for the last month.

 Soybeans:

Planted acreage was lowered 0.4 million acres to reflect 86.1 million acres. Yield was steady at 52.0 bpa. Total production is projected to be 4.360 billion with a carryout of 435 million bushels, which is 20 million bushels less than last month. International ending stocks for new crop were lowered 2.34 MMT (-3.5%).

Reaction: November beans closed down 3 cents on Friday at $10.64. Beans also marked a new low for the year at $10.59 pre-report.

Wheat:

Although planted area in the Planting Intentions was lowered 0.3 million acres, area harvested increased 0.8 million acres. Yield rose 2.4 bu/acre to 51.8 bpa. Overall production rose 133.0 million bushels. Ending stocks increased 98.0 million bushels to 856 million bushels compared to the average estimate of 787 million.

HRW: Production is forecast to be 763 million bushels, 20 million above market expectations this morning. This is 162 million bushels higher than last year.

SRW: Production gained 2 million bushels at 344 million bushels. This is 105 million bushels lower than last year.

Reaction: September KC wheat closed down 15 cents Friday at $5.69. It’s within range of the contract low of $5.52 from early March. The Chicago wheat September closed down 20 cents at 5.51. It’s contract low is $5.50.

Weather:

A drier and warmer pattern is expected over the next week or so. Below normal precipitation is expected across most of the corn belt next week.

Economy:

Per Moody’s Analytics, the typical American family spends about $768 more monthly on goods and services compared to 2020.

A bipartisan group of Senators introduced a proposal to ban stock trading for members of Congress and their families.

CNN is laying off 3% of its workforce.

Detroit released final economic numbers from hosting the NFL Draft in April. They reported 775,000 people attended from all 50 states and 20 countries. It had a $213.6 million impact, of which $161.3 million (76%) was from outside visitors.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11% of men aged 25-24 don’t have a job and are not currently looking for one, either. This is more than triple the 3% reported in 1955.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

A recent study from Tulane University shows just 12% of Americans, mostly men, eat half of the beef consumed in the U.S.

Quote of the Week:

“It ain’t the heat, it’s the humidity.” – Yogi Berra

Enjoy your weekend!